The US president may be distracted by the unfolding events in the Middle East, but for Merz, the tone and substance of the meeting will indicate whether he can expect transactional cooperation or should prepare for continued tensions with the US president. The meeting follows a year of strained transatlantic relations, which have reinforced Merz’s resolve to reduce dependence on the US. Merz, who had for long tried to seek a constructive relationship with the US president by accommodating Trump on several issues, has recently warned that Europeans will defend their interests if threatened with renewed tariffs.
F-35s and Lithuania
While most of the president’s attention on Tuesday will be focused on the developments in the Middle East, he may be content to hear from Merz that Germany is making efforts to gradually assume more responsibility for European security. As such, Merz will likely present concrete progress in Germany’s response to Russia’s aggression. First, Germany has significantly increased defence spending and plans further increases. Berlin will acquire dozens of F-35 fighter jets and other US-produced military equipment, signalling continuity in its defence procurement policy. Merz has pledged to transform the German armed forces into the strongest conventional land force among European Nato members. This aligns with long-standing American demands that Europe assumes greater responsibility for its own defence, although the German government will face several challenges on the way ahead.
Second, Berlin’s commitment to strengthen Nato’s defence is gradually shifting to more practical outcomes. The deployment of a German brigade to Lithuania, decided under the previous government, signals solidarity with allies bordering Russia and supports the development of a stronger European pillar within Nato.
Third, Germany has become the largest supporter of Ukraine, which will be a central talking point with the Europe-sceptic president.
Trump will be pleased with progress in the PURL arrangement (“Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List”), in which Europeans finance US-produced military equipment for Ukraine. Merz will thus emphasise that Germany and its European partners understand the need to shoulder greater responsibility as the US gradually reduces its military footprint in Europe. On defence, Merz can credibly argue that Germany and Europe are gradually matching rhetoric with more concrete capability-building.
Will Germany commit ground troops?
Despite gradual alignment on defence issues, Merz will seek more clarity on issues relevant to Europe. One uncertainty concerns the Arctic and Greenland. Merz will want to know whether an expanded Nato military presence in the Arctic will satisfy Trump or whether Trump still seeks to acquire Greenland, which would sharply increase tensions within Nato.
Ukraine presents a more immediate concern. European governments continue to be anxious that the Trump administration could concede too much to Russia in US-led ceasefire negotiations, in which the Europeans largely observe instead of shaping outcomes.
At the same time, Trump may press Merz on whether Germany would contribute troops to a potential post-ceasefire stabilisation mission; Merz has avoided firm commitments so far. As the war continues, Merz will seek assurances that Ukraine can rely on continued US intelligence-sharing and arms shipments (paid by Europeans) until Europe is able to provide more of these capabilities on its own — which may still take years.
For Ukraine and its European backers, predictability on these topics remains essential.
Flashpoints: China, tariffs, tech
Trump is well aware of Europe’s vulnerabilities and may use them to extract concessions. After Merz’ recent trip to China with a large business delegation, Trump will demand more clarity on Germany’s China policy. Indeed, a closer partnership with Beijing in response to tensions with the US would be an unwise decision, particularly if it does not take the systemic risks sufficiently into account. While Trump would not be able to prevent such a development, he could retaliate in other areas, for example, trade. After the recent Supreme Court decision and Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, it’s unclear if the preliminary trade compromise between the US and the European Union from August 2025 will ever enter into force.
Merz must prepare for confrontational scenarios but should also use the meeting to outline ways to prevent further conflict.
This is even more uncertain if the Trump administration will escalate disputes over the EU’s tech regulations, particularly the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act. By framing them as discriminatory against US tech companies, Trump could link them to broader accusations of censorship and suppression of the political opposition within the EU. Such claims that are also included in the US National Security Strategy could widen disputes far beyond trade. Merz must prepare for confrontational scenarios but should also use the meeting to outline ways to prevent further conflict. For that, Merz will have to make clear that the European governments will not tolerate US interference in European politics and defend their interests against coercive measures.
He should also reject Trump’s attempts to undermine European cohesion by pursuing bilateral deals with individual governments. For most European states, European integration and the transatlantic alliance reinforce each other, and Merz must make clear that cooperation with Washington cannot come at the expense of the European Union.
Despite potential friction, an open clash on Tuesday is unlikely. Given his weakened domestic position following the Supreme Court decision and his complete focus on the events in the Middle East, Trump may have little interest in open conflict with Merz. Still, the tone and substance of the meeting will indicate to Merz whether he should expect transactional cooperation or continued tensions with the US president. If conflicts persist, calls across Europe to accelerate efforts to reduce strategic dependencies on the US will grow stronger.
