Between Old and New World Order
Between Old and New World Order

Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy Rationale

by Stefan Meister, Pavel Baev, Pavel Felgenhauer, Alexander Golts, Alexander Kolbin, Peter Pomerantsev | Russia, Security

Political decision-making under Vladimir Putin is informed by a military-technological rationale, and military might is seen as a main tool of Russian foreign policy. Modern nuclear capabilities are key for Russia as they are regarded an effective bargaining chip that will also bring Moscow back to eye-level vis-à-vis the US. Yet, the Kremlin regards all manners of hybrid warfare – including disinformation, cyber-attacks and Russian-engineered international media coverage – as equally legitimate.

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related content

Policy Paper Series

EU Civilian Crisis Management
EU Civilian Crisis Management

How the Union Can Live up to Its Ambitions – or Stumble into Irrelevance

by Hannah Neumann, Carina Böttcher, Christian Mölling, Marie Wolf | European Union, Security

Europe’s security situation has drastically changed. Current challenges can neither be tackled by member states individually, nor by military means alone. A new ambitious process at EU level gives member states the opportunity to improve the EU’s civilian crisis management and answer central questions. Most importantly though, member states need to increase their financial and personal commitments, if they want to prevent this trademark of European foreign policy from drifting into irrelevance.

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Joint Commentary

America Is More Than Trump
America Is More Than Trump

Europe Should Defend the Iran Deal without Burning Bridges to the US

by Thomas Gomart, Robin Niblett, Daniela Schwarzer, Nathalie Tocci | Iran, Security

In a bid to salvage the Iran Nuclear Deal, European leaders this week moved to protect European companies from the possible fallout of US sanctions against Iran. The steps taken to ensure commerce with Iran – among them the activation of the 1996 blocking statute – risk further alienation from the US. However, the EU will only be able to negotiate effectively with the US over Iran if it develops its own strategy. Fighting for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is a place to start.

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Short Assessments

The EU-Reform Summit on 28./29. June
The EU-Reform Summit on 28./29. June

Daniela Schwarzer, Jana Puglierin, Claire Demesmay, Claudia Schmucker, Milan Nič, Christian Mölling

Hopes are high for far-reaching reforms at the European Council summit: On the agenda are not only migration, security, the budget and the economy, but also Brexit and the reform of the euro area. Member states will debate whether and how far they are willing to adopt proposals for reforms set out by Germany and France. For Germany, the summit bears acute domestic significance due to the ongoing dispute about asylum politics among coalition partners CDU and CSU: Angela Merkel’s chancellory may be at stake.

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Analysis

Orbán Reloaded
Orbán Reloaded

What the EU and Germany Should Do Now

by Milan Nič, Péter Krekó | Hungary, Elections

Viktor Orbán has been re-elected as Hungarian prime minister in polls beset by fear-mongering, an unfair voting system and a divided opposition. After decrying the EU as part of a Western conspiracy against Hungary, he will now both use and abuse Brussels: He hopes to build a new Eurosceptic alliance in Brussels to increase his limited clout in the bloc and his power and maneuver space at home. The EU should step up its responses to prevent Hungary from becoming an antidemocratic model in Europe.

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Analysis

Mind the Gap
Mind the Gap

How France and Germany Can Spearhead Joint Foreign Policy Initiatives Now

by Claire Demesmay, Jana Puglierin, Laure Delcour, Barbara Kunz, Stefan Meister, Andreas Rinke, Frédéric Charillon, Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid, Dorothée Schmid | France

Given the current instability on Europe's borders and uncertainty about the international role of the US under President Trump, it is high time for Franco-German foreign policy initiatives. However, differences between the two, both on policy issues and in their strategic cultures, also limit their cooperation. This study shows how France and Germany can bridge - and exploit - these gaps to facilitate joint initiatives on four key topics: Russia, transatlantic relations, Syria and Turkey.

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