Technology and Strategy
Technology and Strategy

Hypersonic Weapon Systems Will Decrease Global Strategic Stability – and Current Control Regimes Won’t Do

14/03/2019 | by Torben Schütz | Security

Hypersonic weapon systems will alter the global strategic landscape. They will compress reaction times, increase ambiguity of military actions, and may lead to the weaponization of space. With no effective defenses against such systems in sight, all actors will face less stability – regardless of whether or not they field hypersonic weapon systems themselves. Germany and Europe should explore options to mitigate these risks through arms control, export controls, and confidence-building measures.

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Analysis

Security First, Technology Second
Security First, Technology Second

Putin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help

by Andrei Soldatov | Russia, Cyber Security

Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.

Viewpoint

Armenia Needs a New Opposition
Armenia Needs a New Opposition

How the EU Can Help Institute Checks and Balances

by Cristina Gherasimov | Armenia

In Armenia, last year’s Velvet Revolution ended a long period of autocratic rule. On assuming the office of prime minister, former opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan acquired a constitutional authority enhanced by wide popular support and the lack of effective opposition in parliament. While this helps him implement reforms, the absence of strong checks may prove harmful in the long run. The EU should help rebuild Armenia’s checks and balances to ensure the country’s sustainable transformation.

Analysis

Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms Control

Europe’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO

by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß | Arms Control and WMD

In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.

Analysis

Shaking Up the 2019 European Election
Shaking Up the 2019 European Election

Macron, Salvini, Orbán, and the Fate of the European Party System

by Julie Hamann, Milan Nič, Jana Puglierin | Elections

More fragmented than ever, Europe is at a crossroads, making the 2019 European Parliament election an immensely political event. Stakes are high for Emmanuel Macron, Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orbán, all of whom could shake up the balance of power in the EP. Macron has lost much of his initial vigor, and the disruptive potential of Salvini and Orbán is significant. If played well, their combined power could send shock waves across all European institutions.

Scenarios

Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans
Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans

Options for the Interplay of Neighborly Relations and EU Accession up to 2025

by Cornelius Adebahr, Theresia Töglhofer, Sarah Wohlfeld, Natasha Wunsch | Balkans, European Union

Under the European Commission’s 2018 Western Balkan strategy, candidate countries from the region must resolve bilateral disputes before joining the EU. As it wants to avoid importing conflicts, the EU puts the onus to ensure good neighborly relations onto the region itself. International researchers from this year’s TRAIN program developed scenarios for the region. They range from increasing regional cooperation to the possible fallout from failed conflict resolution or an EU fatigue toward the region.

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