Setting the Transatlantic Course

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In the memo series “Setting the Transatlantic Course,” DGAP experts analyze possible scenarios for the 2024 US presidential election and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Originally, the scenarios “Biden 2.0” vs. “Trump 2.0” were examined from various perspectives: security, trade, geopolitics, and climate foreign policy. Since Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, and the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the analyses now focus on “Harris 1.0” vs. “Trump 2.0.” The experts outline the expected consequences of this election on fields related to foreign policy and formulate recommendations for Germany and Europe to set the course for a sustainable partnership at an early stage.

 

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What If the USA Closes Its Nuclear Umbrella Over Europe?

If the United States were to end its nuclear pledge to Europe, it would cause itself considerable damage. However, were this worst-case scenario to materialize, Europe would still have two important nuclear powers: France and the United Kingdom. To increase their credibility, both states must intensify their nuclear consultations. A European dialogue between nuclear and non-nuclear states is also needed. 

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Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp
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