Setting the Transatlantic Course

In the memo series “Setting the Transatlantic Course,” DGAP experts analyzed possible scenarios for the 2024 US presidential election and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Originally, the scenarios “Biden 2.0” vs. “Trump 2.0” were examined from various perspectives: security, trade, geopolitics, and climate foreign policy. Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, and the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the analyses focused on “Harris 1.0” vs. “Trump 2.0.” The experts outlined the expected consequences of this election on fields related to foreign policy and formulated recommendations for Germany and Europe to set the course for a sustainable partnership at an early stage.

Recent publications

Inauguration Of Imec s NanoIC Pilot Production Line LEUVEN, BELGIUM

Halbleiter-Lieferketten sicher machen

Was risikobasierte Ansätze bewirken können

Deutschland braucht resiliente und vertrauenswürdige Halbleiter-Lieferketten.

Filip Medunić

Flaggen der Europäischen Union und der Vereinigten Staaten

Transatlantische Druckpunkte

Wie Europa seine Verhandlungsmacht gegenüber den USA stärken kann

Tobias Lindner

Valbona Zeneli

Rachel Tausendfreund

Europa sollte seine Abhängigkeiten von den USA verringern und die Kosten einer Entkopplung für Washington erhöhen.

Skorsky type helicopters, guns, and CH-47 Chinook transport helicopters

How the German government should respond to new US arms export risks

Dominik Tolksdorf

With doubts growing about the reliability of the US under Donald Trump, transatlantic defense relations are coming under increasing scrutiny. The expert from the German Council on Foreign Relations argues that this poses a strategic risk the German government should take more seriously in future procurement decisions.

Das Cyberabwehrzentrum (Symbolbild, Themenbild) Bundesaußenministern Annalena Baerbock besucht im Rahmen ihrer Deutschlandreise das Cyberabwehrzentrum der Deutschen Telekom in Bonn

KI und hybride Bedrohungen 2.0

Warum Deutschland jetzt handeln muss

Katja Muñoz

Deutschland und Europa behandeln hybride Bedrohungen als temporäre Störung des Informationsraums. Dabei verkennen sie, dass diese vielmehr einen permanenten Zustand systematischer Destabilisierung darstellen.

Disinformation and the Role of Social Media Influencers: Navigating Influence in the Digital Public Sphere

Katja Muñoz

Social media influencers have emerged as “alternative trusted sources” as trust migrates from institutions to individual storytellers, reshaping democratic discourse globally. This reveals that the primary threat to democratic resilience lies not in content accuracy but in the strategic manipulation of distribution systems that determine which voices reach mainstream audiences.

Navigating a Strategic Dilemma

Germany's Defense Procurement amid Transatlantic Uncertainty

Dominik Tolksdorf

The Trump administration's confrontational approach has shattered trust in the United States as a security partner, forcing Europe and Germany to re-evaluate defense dependencies. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Germany has continued to rely on U.S. suppliers to meet urgent capability gaps, but given the recent dramatic political shifts this approach seems less and less tenable. The defense technology sector—including drones, anti-drone systems and software-defined and AI-powered systems—has become critical to modern warfare and represents a pivotal area where Germany must reconsider its procurement strategy.