Setting the Transatlantic Course

In the memo series “Setting the Transatlantic Course,” DGAP experts analyzed possible scenarios for the 2024 US presidential election and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Originally, the scenarios “Biden 2.0” vs. “Trump 2.0” were examined from various perspectives: security, trade, geopolitics, and climate foreign policy. Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, and the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the analyses focused on “Harris 1.0” vs. “Trump 2.0.” The experts outlined the expected consequences of this election on fields related to foreign policy and formulated recommendations for Germany and Europe to set the course for a sustainable partnership at an early stage.

 

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Navigating a Strategic Dilemma

Germany's Defense Procurement amid Transatlantic Uncertainty
The Trump administration's confrontational approach has shattered trust in the United States as a security partner, forcing Europe and Germany to re-evaluate defense dependencies. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Germany has continued to rely on U.S. suppliers to meet urgent capability gaps, but given the recent dramatic political shifts this approach seems less and less tenable. The defense technology sector—including drones, anti-drone systems and software-defined and AI-powered systems—has become critical to modern warfare and represents a pivotal area where Germany must reconsider its procurement strategy.
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Dr. Dominik Tolksdorf
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