Setting the Transatlantic Course

In the memo series “Setting the Transatlantic Course,” DGAP experts analyzed possible scenarios for the 2024 US presidential election and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Originally, the scenarios “Biden 2.0” vs. “Trump 2.0” were examined from various perspectives: security, trade, geopolitics, and climate foreign policy. Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, and the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the analyses focused on “Harris 1.0” vs. “Trump 2.0.” The experts outlined the expected consequences of this election on fields related to foreign policy and formulated recommendations for Germany and Europe to set the course for a sustainable partnership at an early stage.

Recent publications

Representatives of NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners stand together at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague

Interconnected Security

How European and Indo-Pacific Partners Can Contribute to One Another’s Stability and Security

Dr. Aylin Matlé

State Secretary for Defence Derk Boswijk poses for a photo with Patriot weapon systems at De Peel Barracks.

The risks of Europe’s reliance on U.S. defense products – and how to address them

Dr. Dominik Tolksdorf

Many EU member states remain dependent on the U.S. for critical defense capabilities, leaving Europe vulnerable to U.S. production constraints, shifting arms transfer priorities, and the risk that the Trump administration uses arms exports as political leverage in relations with European allies.

Flaggen der Europäischen Union und der Vereinigten Staaten

Transatlantische Druckpunkte

Wie Europa seine Verhandlungsmacht gegenüber den USA stärken kann

Tobias Lindner

Dr. Valbona Zeneli

Rachel Tausendfreund

Europa sollte seine Abhängigkeiten von den USA verringern und die Kosten einer Entkopplung für Washington erhöhen.

Inauguration Of Imec s NanoIC Pilot Production Line LEUVEN, BELGIUM

Halbleiter-Lieferketten sicher machen

Was risikobasierte Ansätze bewirken können

Filip Medunić

Deutschland braucht resiliente und vertrauenswürdige Halbleiter-Lieferketten.

Skorsky type helicopters, guns, and CH-47 Chinook transport helicopters

How the German government should respond to new US arms export risks

Dr. Dominik Tolksdorf

With doubts growing about the reliability of the US under Donald Trump, transatlantic defense relations are coming under increasing scrutiny. The expert from the German Council on Foreign Relations argues that this poses a strategic risk the German government should take more seriously in future procurement decisions.

Das Cyberabwehrzentrum (Symbolbild, Themenbild) Bundesaußenministern Annalena Baerbock besucht im Rahmen ihrer Deutschlandreise das Cyberabwehrzentrum der Deutschen Telekom in Bonn

KI und hybride Bedrohungen 2.0

Warum Deutschland jetzt handeln muss

Dr. Katja Muñoz

Deutschland und Europa behandeln hybride Bedrohungen als temporäre Störung des Informationsraums. Dabei verkennen sie, dass diese vielmehr einen permanenten Zustand systematischer Destabilisierung darstellen.

Disinformation and the Role of Social Media Influencers: Navigating Influence in the Digital Public Sphere

Dr. Katja Muñoz

Social media influencers have emerged as “alternative trusted sources” as trust migrates from institutions to individual storytellers, reshaping democratic discourse globally. This reveals that the primary threat to democratic resilience lies not in content accuracy but in the strategic manipulation of distribution systems that determine which voices reach mainstream audiences.