Setting the Transatlantic Course

In the memo series “Setting the Transatlantic Course,” DGAP experts analyze possible scenarios for the 2024 US presidential election and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Originally, the scenarios “Biden 2.0” vs. “Trump 2.0” were examined from various perspectives: security, trade, geopolitics, and climate foreign policy. Since Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, and the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the analyses now focus on “Harris 1.0” vs. “Trump 2.0.” The experts outline the expected consequences of this election on fields related to foreign policy and formulate recommendations for Germany and Europe to set the course for a sustainable partnership at an early stage.

Recent publications

Donald Trump, right, responds to a question during an impromptu press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in September 2024.

Foreign Policy Implications of Trump’s Return and Germany’s Coalition Collapse

Ukraine As the First Victim

Change, instability, and transition will characterize the foreign policy environment over the coming months as politicians and citizens grapple with the reverberations of a double-whammy shaking the Western world: the United States, the globe’s premiere power, will once again be led by Donald J. Trump, the country’s chief disrupter, while Germany, Europe’s largest power, has to contend with a tumultuous collapse of its coalition government and an unclear path to new elections. Both events are bound to trigger consequences further afield.

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff