Gelila Enbaye is a research associate at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) contributing to its work on peace and security. She explores politics in the Horn of Africa and the intersection of political economy and conflicts. A recent GPPi project first sparked her interest in serious games when she co-developed a tabletop game for policymakers. While the game focused on analyzing and anticipating political economy dynamics in armed conflict, she now seeks to explore forward-looking methods as valuable tools in conflict resolution and mediation practice. Prior to her current position, she gained professional insights in private sector consulting, academic research and policymaking with a focus on the African continent.

Policy Project: Exploring the potential of futures-thinking in peace mediation

Thinking about the future is inherently a part of any peace mediation process. However, experiences with transformative scenario processes in countries like South Africa and Colombia have demonstrated that a systematic engagement with potential futures can significantly support peaceful transitions.
Mediation practitioners often face the challenge of entrenched positions among conflict parties and must determine the most favorable moments for supportive interventions in conflict resolution processes. In this context, tools from futures-thinking can provide valuable entry points for mediation efforts. It is therefore crucial to expand the futures-thinking toolkit available to mediators and explore new ways of applying this methodology.
This project aims to identify the conditions under which futures-thinking can be effectively applied in mediation, while also recognizing its limitations in light of conflicting parties’ interests and constraints. Additionally, the project will function as a platform for learning and exchange between the fields of mediation and futures-thinking.