Right-wing populists would win in Poland today

What do the Polish people think of this transfer today? An estimate of the turnout today indicates that 47-48% of those eligible would go to the polls today, and this would be one of the lowest turnouts in parliamentary elections of the last 20 years. A year ago, young people, particularly young women, were the decisive factors in the voting. As expected, respondents' age is associated with their willingness to vote (67% among those over 40 and 60% among younger respondents). A year ago, these proportions were reversed with a large advantage for the younger ones.

Sadly, today almost nothing is left of this mobilization. Half of those surveyed (51%) identify fairly little or very little with the government's program, message and actions. In an extremely polarised state, elections are won by motivating one's electorate and not by pulling the opponent's voters to one's side.

Support is retained by Kaczynski's PiS, while support has doubled by the extreme Confederation. The percentage of those wanting to vote is high (73%) among those for whom PiS is the party of first choice. PiS is not losing voters because many Poles still remember that it was PiS that gave people a wide range of financial transfers including high child support payments, as well as additional 13th and 14th pensions for the pensioners.

If elections were held now, Tusk's government would lose power (the combined support for the parties forming it is 43%) and the winners would be a potential coalition of PiS (30 per cent) and Confederation (15 per cent). The others are also most likely to lean towards PiS. Nearly ⅓ (31%) of those declaring their intention to vote in the next election would vote differently today than in the autumn.

What is important, however, is the trend, and this favors the Confederation above all, while it does not favor the Left and the Third Way, two key parts of the Tusk coalition. It is the electorates of these two political forces that are most disappointed by the lack of faster change in Poland and least identified with the government.

The electorate of the Left is disturbed by the failure to legalize abortion (the government has only introduced administrative changes that have, in essence, decriminalized it).  But the debate over abortion has grown into a key indicator for many people of whether or not Poland is a modern country or a backward, Catholic one. It is also disturbing that the coalition’s leaders are still men, despite the fact that the electorate, which is predominantly female, expects otherwise.

Although Tusk's Civic Coalition has finally gained a strong base of voters committed to and strongly identifying with Tusk (56% of its supporters), the Confederation has gained an even stronger iron base (62%). Of the main political forces, the Confederation’s electorate is relatively the most disciplined (61% of those voting for the party in 2023 want to vote for it now as well) and PiS (59%). In the case of the Civic Coalition and the Left, only one in two of their 2023 electorate would like to confirm their choice now.

The other part of the electorate of KO and the other ruling parties, however, is disappointed by the lack of faster settlements of PiS politicians, which is blocked by the PiS-linked President Andrzej Duda. He vetoes almost every bill, making it impossible to restore the rule of law in Poland. And the state's empty coffers make it difficult to bring quick benefits to the Polish people, which they would not feel in one year anyway.

The Third Way (made up of the Poland 2050 party of Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia) and Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (representing the agricultural and conservative PSL party) is experiencing a crisis of both supporter engagement and of leadership. The two parties, which ran for the Sejm as a coalition, have electorates with opposing views and are blocking each other. They are kept alive mainly by the electoral threshold, which in Poland is a low 5% and 8 % for coalitions.

The two are threatened not only by the demobilization of voters, but also by being devoured by Civic Platform and even by the Confederation, which has an increasingly popular leader, Krzysztof Bosak, who is liked by almost every segment of the electorate. Suffice it to say that one in two men under 40 wants to vote for the Confederation. However, Confederation did make a big mistake when it nominated Slawomir Mentzen, the party's second ranking leader and a man popular within the party but not with the public, for as their presidential candidate for next year’s vote.

Unlike the PiS, Confederation has the potential to attract disillusioned voters from almost any party. It offers a more honest version of right-wingedness than PiS, unencumbered by the scandals of Kaczyński's eight years in power. Indeed, some two thirds of those recently surveyed believe that there are some PiS politicians or officials who deserve to be imprisoned. Even one in three Law and Justice voters think this. When asked who Poles see in prison, former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (34%), Jarosław Kaczyński (30%) and former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro (19%) came first.

Tusk's new immigration policy, which he recently managed to push through in Brussels, the crux of which is the temporary suspension of the possibility to apply for asylum in Poland, is precisely an attempt to cut off the oxygen of the extreme right in Poland.

There is, however, a possible happy ending to this story. In the presidential elections in seven months' time, which could unblock the government and lead to faster reforms, the absolute favorite is KO politician and current mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski. When asked about their favorite, Poles spontaneously (without the researcher naming names) mention Trzaskowski first and foremost (as many as one-third!). No one else even exceeds 8%.  Election of Trzaskowski as president would be a breakthrough for the government and for Poland as a whole, already tired of the opportunism of the unpopular Andrzej Duda.