Jana Puglierin answers
There is a real danger that the immigration issue might crack Europe first. The rift about asylum policy among Germany’s CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group could bring down Chancellor Angela Merkel and lead to a breakup of the governing coalition in Berlin. This would leave the EU once again without a functioning Germany—possibly for months to come. The window of opportunity for effective EU reform is already closing. The EU’s inability to achieve real progress on issues like migration, eurozone reform, or European security would play into the hands of right-wing populist and euroskeptic forces in the wake of the upcoming European elections in May 2019.
If Merkel loses the argument for a “European solution” on the migration issue in Brussels and is toppled at home, it will boost the voices in the EU that are already questioning Europe’s open borders and arguing that the time of orderly multilateralism has come to an end. So if Europe can’t crack the immigration issue—or is unable to agree at least on some minimum common standard—then the immigration issue will likely crack Europe.
Read the entire entry here.
Jana Puglierin is Head of program, Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations
