Moldova: Start of Formal Accession Negotiations with the EU

Moldova's Path to Accession Negotiations 

Prior to the start of accession negotiations, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia had already established extensive relations with the EU. All three countries have been part of the EU's Eastern Partnership Policy since 2009. In 2014, an Association Agreement and a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) was launched. Since 2017, citizens of the three countries have been able to enter the EU without a visa for up to 90 days within six months. On 3 March 2022, Moldova applied for EU membership and on 17 June 2022, the European Commission submitted its opinion on the applications of these three countries. On this basis, Moldova was granted the candidate status by a decision of the European Council on 23 June 2022. The opinion identified nine steps, Moldova must take to progress on the accession path. Based on the enlargement package report on 8 November 2023, the Commission recommended to the Council the initiation of accession negotiations with Moldova, provided the remaining steps on judicial reform, anti-corruption and de-oligarchisation are completed. Finally, the Council decided on 14 December 2023 to open accession negotiations with the country after the Commission's finding that these steps had been completed.

Next Steps in the Screening Process 

Currently, Moldova, like Ukraine, is in the screening phase, which is divided into 35 chapters grouped into six clusters, highlighting the complexity and the enormous administrative challenges the country is facing: The screening is divided into two phases: an explanatory phase (EU legislation) and a mirror phase (Moldovan legislation). The first phase, which took place between February and May 2024, included explanations from the Commission on the standards and regulations to be adopted by Moldova. This process was significantly accelerated and shortened from almost a year to a few months. In addition, the EU regulations have already been translated into Romanian with the assistance of Romania, ensuring that Chișinău does not lose any time in this regard. During the next step, Moldova will thoroughly assess its legislation and compare it with the EU requirements. This step will include an in-depth analysis of the compliance of the national legislation with the acquis. Discussions will then begin on the various accession clusters and chapters. Moldova should pay particular attention to judicial reform, the fight against corruption and the protection of minorities.

Challenges and EU Support 

For the current reform-oriented government under President Maia Sandu, the Russian war of aggression has, on the one hand, opened up the accession process in the first place and, on the other, presented the country with enormous economic and security policy challenges. As Ukraine's direct neighbour, Moldova has had to cope with a large number of refugees, inflation, threats to its energy supply, airspace violations and a large number of hybrid attacks by Russia, such as disinformation and cyberattacks. Since 2023, the EU has adopted a five-priority support package for Moldova, which aims to mitigate the impact of Russian aggression and bring the country closer to the EU. These priorities include:

1. Moldova's economic development, supported by action plans and flagship initiatives. 
2. Supporting reforms by strengthening administrative capacities. 
3. Ensuring energy security through increased electricity production, participation in the EU gas purchasing mechanism and promotion of renewable energy. 
4. Improving security through increased cooperation and strengthening of the defence sector. 
5. The fight against disinformation.

The EU is Moldova's largest financial supporter in the areas of socioeconomic development and reforms, including technical assistance under the Neighbourhood Instrument for Development and Cooperation. Since 2021, the EU has supported Moldova with EUR 2.2 bn in loans and grants. Support is provided through financial instruments such as direct budget support, macro-financial assistance and other EU programmes. The current government faces significant challenges due to limited administrative and personnel resources while simultaneously managing reforms, a highly complex EU accession process, and ongoing vulnerabilities to Russia in the areas of energy, security, and information. As long as the population does not see an improvement in their economic situation, support for reforms will likely diminish and could be exploited by populist forces. Russian disinformation already targets this, seeking to discredit the EU accession process

Presidential Election and EU referendum

In October, President Maia Sandu is running for re-election, combined with a referendum on EU accession. EU integration will only be declared a 'strategic goal of the Republic of Moldova' in an amendment to the Constitution, with a dedicated section added on the process, if voter turnout exceeds 33 per cent and a majority is achieved. This decision was taken by a majority of the ruling PAS party and was sharply criticised by the opposition, which continues to demand good relations with Russia. For Maia Sandu, EU accession is a key political goal and the referendum is also intended to ensure that the integration process cannot be halted in the event of a change of government. While she is considered to have a good chance of winning the presidential election, the ruling party will face more difficulties winning the parliamentary elections next year. The presidential election and referendum are important votes on the reform and EU integration policy of Maia Sandu and the PAS government. Russia will once again attempt to exert massive influence on both votes and is supporting several opposition parties. If the referendum fails, the integration process will not be halted, but Maia Sandu and the ruling party would be weakened domestically.

Conclusions and Outlook

The formal start of accession negotiations is a key step for Moldova. At the same time, it serves as a stress test, given the country's limited administrative resources and Russia's potential to exert influence. Much will depend on the extent to which the EU member states continue to prioritise the EU accession of Ukraine and Moldova and countries such as Hungary, which currently holds the Council Presidency, block the next steps or funding. The pace of reform of the candidate countries will also determine the member states’ support for enlargement. Therefore, it is of importance whether a reform-friendly president and government remain in power or whether political changes could lead to a slowdown in reform efforts.