Opening Pandora's box

If Germany left, it would open a Pandora’s box. The view is that multiple NATO member states east of Germany would want to participate – with Poland mentioned explicitly (and not positively) – and that this would likely have many negative consequences.

Russian responses would be immediate and long-term; any chance of rapprochement would disappear for a long time. It would also upset the newfound balance in the Baltic Sea region (BSR), with direct consequences to Finland and other BSR littorals. An offence-defense arms race cycle would be likely, with Russia feeling forced to significantly strengthen its western defenses, “requiring” a response by NATO etc. etc. In one sentence: Unilateral German withdrawal from (technical) nuclear sharing would have significant negative consequences for European security.