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Dark clouds over free trade in G20
by Claudia Schmucker
First published by Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, 4 April 2017
President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric has eroded support for the commitments that leaders made at previous G20 summits regarding trade: rejecting protectionism and strengthening the multilateral trading system. What implications does this have for global trade? Will the more moderate voices in the administration get heard?
Balkan Troubles
Balkan TroublesThe six countries of the Western Balkans need the EU’s full attention.
by Milan Nič
Berlin Policy Journal, March 31, 2017
Russia, and to a lesser extent Turkey, have increased their efforts to destabilize the European Union’s “inner courtyard” of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia. Brussels – and Berlin – urgently need to reengage. After an extended absence, the Western Balkans finally returned to the European agenda at the March 9 EU summit.
China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe
China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern EuropeRegional and Global Implications for Germany and the EU
by Jacopo Maria Pepe
DGAPanalyse 3 (March 2017), 11pp.
Could China’s quiet but steadily rising penetration of Central Europe bear risks for the EU? Certainly, Beijing is using the region as a gateway to Western Europe’s markets while including the EU in its “Eurasian” integration project. But a deepening trade triangle of China, Germany, and Central European countries could put other EU countries at an economic disadvantage. Germany must address this risk, carefully balancing national interest and European cohesion.
Assessing the 2017 Munich Security Conference
Assessing the 2017 Munich Security ConferenceThe liberal order is under unprecedented pressure
by Daniela Schwarzer, Sylke Tempel
The stakes were high, expectations even higher at this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC): The liberal order, created by the United States after World War II, is under pressure, not least – ironically enough – from the new US administration. The social, political, and economic consequences of technological innovation are enormous. And there is, at least in Western liberal democracies, a growing sense of uncertainty. Did the 53rd MSC provide some orientation?
Trump, the EU, and Iran Policy
Multiple Pathways Ahead
by Cornelius Adebahr
Carnegie Europe, January 31, 2017, 12 pp (In English)
The Trump administration’s unclear and conflicting views on Iran could jeopardize the nuclear deal and threaten critical relations with European allies.
Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy
Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus PolicySecurity Concerns amid Ethno-Political Conflict
by Sergey Markedonov
DGAPanalyse 1 (January 2017), 11 pp.
The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty to the South Caucasus. Russia’s policies are crucial here, just as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the South Caucasus highlights Russia's security concerns. The post-Soviet neighborhood's different conflict zones require a differentiated approach.
New Deals for the Old Continent
New Deals for the Old ContinentFrom the January-February Berlin Policy Journal
by Daniela Schwarzer
Berlin Policy Journal, January February 2017
Europe is bracing for a new US president whose foreign policy objectives are measured solely by American interests. As the new director of the DGAP's research institute writes, "damage control" is not the only answer: Europe has to take its fate into its own hands.
Cracks Appearing
Cracks Appearing
by Milan Nič
Berlin Policy Journal, January 10, 2017
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has declared 2017 “the year of revolt” against the “old European liberal elite.” But his Visegrád group of Central European countries is far less united than many think.
Beyond Closing Mosques and Shutting Down Facebook Pages
Beyond Closing Mosques and Shutting Down Facebook PagesHow Tunisia Can Address the Threat of Online and Offline Terrorist Recruitment
by Marwa Fatafta
DGAPkompakt 24 (December 2016), 5 pp.
Tunisian nationals make up the largest number of foreign fighters affiliated with ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. ISIS is highly effective at using sophisticated online propaganda strategies to target young Tunisians. The government's fight against online and offline terrorist recruitment should include not only monitoring content that incites violence but also more constructive measures such as using social media to encourage civic engagement and bringing crowdsourcing to policy making.
Tunisia’s Postcolonial Identity Crisis
Tunisia’s Postcolonial Identity CrisisA Key to Understanding the Lure of Extremism
by Youssef Cherif
DGAPkompakt 23 (December 2016), 5 pp.
In Tunisia today, the hotly debated question of national identity opens up a vacuum for radical groups to fill. After years of repression, the post-2011 period of democracy and freedom of speech has allowed Tunisians to conduct grass-roots discussions of what they identify with. As political groups play different identity cards, and as jihadists cast a wide net for disaffected youth, defining what it means to be Tunisian turns out to be a divisive practice indeed.
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