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Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyHypersonic Weapon Systems Will Decrease Global Strategic Stability – and Current Control Regimes Won’t Do
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 4 (March 2019), 6 pp.
Hypersonic weapon systems will alter the global strategic landscape. They will compress reaction times, increase ambiguity of military actions, and may lead to the weaponization of space. With no effective defenses against such systems in sight, all actors will face less stability – regardless of whether or not they field hypersonic weapon systems themselves. Germany and Europe should explore options to mitigate these risks through arms control, export controls, and confidence-building measures.
Security First, Technology Second
Security First, Technology SecondPutin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help
by Andrei Soldatov
DGAPkompakt 3, 7. März 2019, 5 S.
Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Armenia Needs a New Opposition
Armenia Needs a New OppositionHow the EU Can Help Institute Checks and Balances
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPstandpunkt 6, March 6, 2019, 3 pp.
In Armenia, last year’s Velvet Revolution ended a long period of autocratic rule. On assuming the office of prime minister, former opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan acquired a constitutional authority enhanced by wide popular support and the lack of effective opposition in parliament. While this helps him implement reforms, the absence of strong checks may prove harmful in the long run. The EU should help rebuild Armenia’s checks and balances to ensure the country’s sustainable transformation.
Moldova’s Weak Democracy Is a Growing Risk for Europe
by Cristina Gherasimov
First published as Expert Comment, Chatham House, February 26, 2019
The country’s politics have been captured by a corrupt elite, creating a worrying security risk on the edge of Europe.
Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms ControlEurope’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO
by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß
DGAPkompakt 2 (February 2019), 4 pp.
In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.
Can Slovakia and the Czech Republic overcome Europe’s east-west divide?
by Almut Möller, Milan Nič
ECFR Commentary, February 11, 2019
Prague and Bratislava can jointly develop a more visible profile within the Visegrad 4 group and counter the overall dominance of Hungary and Poland.
Shaking Up the 2019 European Election
Shaking Up the 2019 European ElectionMacron, Salvini, Orbán, and the Fate of the European Party System
by Julie Hamann, Milan Nič, Jana Puglierin
DGAPanalysis 1 (February 2019), 11 pp.
More fragmented than ever, Europe is at a crossroads, making the 2019 European Parliament election an immensely political event. Stakes are high for Emmanuel Macron, Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orbán, all of whom could shake up the balance of power in the EP. Macron has lost much of his initial vigor, and the disruptive potential of Salvini and Orbán is significant. If played well, their combined power could send shock waves across all European institutions.
Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management Forward
Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management ForwardMore Capable, More Flexible, More Responsive
by
DGAPreport, January 2019, 31 pp.
The security environment of the European Union (EU) has changed dramatically over the past decade. New complex conflicts have erupted in the EU’s neighborhood, including Ukraine, Syria, Libya and Yemen, while long-standing conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan persist. Moreover, the rule-based world order has been increasingly fragmenting over the last years, and is facing a rise of interest-based foreign policy resting on power and deterrence.
Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions
Perspectives from the Region and Europe
by Dina Fakoussa, Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011.
“You cannot stop information from being shared or disseminated”
“You cannot stop information from being shared or disseminated”Andrei Soldatov on digitalization in Russia
by Alena Epifanova
Digitalization is an innovative economic sector in Russia which showcases the country’s intellectual potential. Internet is readily available, with many Russian cities offering easier internet access than Germany cities. Russia is a network society with booming social media. At the same time, the Russian government is systematically trying to control this area. As this is not always technically feasible, Russia is intensifying its technological cooperation with China.
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