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Stably Instable
Stably InstablePutin’s Reelection Will Not Stop Social Change in Russia
by Stefan Meister
DGAPviewpoint 9, 2018, 3 pp.
Vladimir Putin has governed Russia for eighteen years. An entire generation of young Russians has only ever experienced him at the helm of their country. Yet, it is just this generation that Putin is losing touch with as he has been seeking his power base mostly in the conservative, small-town and rural majority. Putin’s reelection will not shield his government from the social change that Russia is facing – and it is this change that the West should set its hopes on.
Fed Up
Fed UpA political murder has triggered upheaval in Slovakia.
by Milan Nič
Berlin Policy Journal, 16.03.2018
The murders of Slovak journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová set off a wave of protests throughout the country. Having already forced the resignation of a long-term Slovak Prime Minister there’s no telling how far they could go from here.
Germany Has a New Government
by Stefan Meister
First published for the Valdai Discussion Club
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier officially proposed the Bundestag to appoint Angela Merkel as Federal Chancellor. Will the policy of the “new old” federal government change, or will the grand coalition continue the current line? During her last term, Angela Merkel will have to deal much more with domestic issues and has to manage her succession, writes Stefan Meister, Head of Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, German Council on Foreign Relations.
Cautiously Ambitious
Cautiously AmbitiousGerman Government Sets the Right Tone for Strong EU Policies
by Daniela Schwarzer
DGAPkompakt 5 (March 2018), 5 pp.
Angela Merkel is set to form a new government as the Social Democrats accepted a coalition with the CDU/CSU. Their coalition deal pushes for closer European integration alongside EU reform and strong German-French relations. It continues the paradigm of post-war German foreign relations by focusing on partnerships. At the same time, this paradigm is under threat: Both the EU and US relations have become less certain. Germany needs to proceed with ambition – and caution. The deal is a good start.
All That Xi Wants
All That Xi WantsChina’s Communist Party is Trying to Reform the Country from the Top Down
by Bernt Berger
DGAPviewpoint 5, 2018, 3 pp.
The Chinese Communist Party leadership's move to drop the constitutional limits restricting President Xi Jinping’s tenure have been interpreted as a long-term power grab by many international media. This view, however, misses a crucial point: The Central Committee is embarking on reforms to consolidate the government – from the top down. Not yet on board in this process are key stakeholders.
Is Russia Europe’s Biggest Threat?
Judy Dempsey asks Stefan Meister and other experts
by Stefan Meister
“Judy Asks,” Carnegie Europe Blog, February 21, 2018
As part of her “Strategic Europe” blog for Carnegie Europe’s website, Judy Dempsey asked a selection of foreign and security policy experts, including the DGAP’s Stefan Meister, about Russia’s role for Europe.
Geopolitics and Security
Geopolitics and SecurityA New Strategy for the South Caucasus
by Stefan Meister
Geopolitics and Security - A New Strategy for the South Caucasus, 2018, 305 pp., ISBN 978-9941-449-93-2
The South Caucasus is a region at the nexus of various economic, political, and energy interests. It is currently witnessing some of the most complex and dangerous events in the world today. It features weak states, direct and proxy wars, and a confluence of great power interests. It is a prism for fundamental challenges to the international system, including separatism, security, energy transit, and infrastructure.
The World is at the Brink - and the West doesn’t know what to do about it
The World is at the Brink - and the West doesn’t know what to do about itObservations from the 2018 Munich Security Conference
by Daniela Schwarzer, Henning Hoff
DGAPviewpoint 3 (February 2018), 4 p.
The risk of interstate conflict has never been this high since 1989. A tense international security situation set the tone for this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC). What’s worse: Neither Europe nor the United States seem to have any plan to address the threats facing them both. There isn’t much time left: Germans and Europeans must become more strategically capable, active and innovative to succeed in the new systemic conflict and help reduce instability.
Mind the Gap: How France and Germany Can Spearhead Joint Foreign Policy Initiatives Now
Mind the Gap: How France and Germany Can Spearhead Joint Foreign Policy Initiatives Now
by Claire Demesmay, Jana Puglierin, Laure Delcour, Barbara Kunz, Stefan Meister, Andreas Rinke, Frédéric Charillon
DGAPkompakt 4 (February 2018), 13 pp.
Given the current instability on Europe's borders and uncertainty about the international role of the US under President Trump, it is high time for Franco-German foreign policy initiatives. However, differences between the two, both on policy issues and in their strategic cultures, also limit their cooperation. This study shows how France and Germany can bridge - and exploit - these gaps to facilitate joint initiatives on four key topics: Russia, transatlantic relations, Syria and Turkey.
Beyond ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ Putin
Beyond ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ PutinDebating Russia Policies in France and Germany
by Barbara Kunz
DGAPanalyse 1 (February 2018), 20 pp.
France and Germany are key in shaping European policies toward Russia. However, while the general public is largely skeptical of Vladimir Putin in both countries, the picture is more diverse in the political realm. Whereas Germany remains focused on multilateralism and a rules-based international order, French political parties have been split on Russia. The differences between and within France and Germany impact on Franco-German relations and go beyond the question on how to deal with Russia.
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