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Point of No Return
Point of No ReturnViktor Orbán’s Divorce from the EPP
by Milan Nič, András Rácz
DGAPkompakt 7 (May 2019), 4 pp.
A few weeks after the European People’s Party (EPP) suspended the membership of Hungary’s ruling populist party, Fidesz, it looks unlikely that their relationship could be repaired. Seeing his leverage decreasing, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been paving the way for divorce. The EPP leaders seem to have made up their minds as well. A re-arrangement of the European party system is already taking shape ahead of the upcoming European elections (23–26 May 2019), not only afterwards.
Looking beyond Sibiu
Looking beyond SibiuEU cooperation can move forward – flexibly
by Julian Rappold, Daniela Schwarzer
DGAPstandpunkt 14, May 7, 2019, 3 pp.
The European Council meeting in Sibiu on 9 May was intended to boost the European Union two weeks ahead of the European parliamentary election, and in the wake of the original March Brexit date. However, divided amongst themselves, the EU leaders are shying away from notable commitments even though citizens’ support for the EU has actually increased. The likely limited results of Sibiu reflect the current state of the EU, but do not necessarily determine its future after the election.
Rupture in Kiev
Rupture in KievUkrainians Vote for Change to Consolidate Their Democracy
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPviewpoint 11, April 24, 2019, 4 pp.
The landslide victory of Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine’s presidential runoff is a breakthrough in the post-Soviet space that rarely offers chances to political novices. The vote highlights Ukrainians’ discontent with the political establishment. It shows a new set of factors at work in shaping the polls, and civil society’s readiness to accept risk to consolidate their fragile democracy. For the European Union and Germany, the change offers an opportunity for new momentum in relations with Ukraine.
The Next Two Years in EU-U.S. Relations
by Jana Puglierin
In: Transatlantic Security Cooperation Toward 2020, Policy Paper, 25.03.2019, 18 p.
Transatlantic relations have been in a permanent state of emergency since President Donald Trump took office in 2017: for the first time since World War II, a U.S. president is not only calling into question his country’s security guarantee for Europe but also being openly skeptical of, if not hostile to, the EU.
Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyHypersonic Weapon Systems Will Decrease Global Strategic Stability – and Current Control Regimes Won’t Do
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 4 (March 2019), 6 pp.
Hypersonic weapon systems will alter the global strategic landscape. They will compress reaction times, increase ambiguity of military actions, and may lead to the weaponization of space. With no effective defenses against such systems in sight, all actors will face less stability – regardless of whether or not they field hypersonic weapon systems themselves. Germany and Europe should explore options to mitigate these risks through arms control, export controls, and confidence-building measures.
Security First, Technology Second
Security First, Technology SecondPutin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help
by Andrei Soldatov
DGAPkompakt 3, 7. März 2019, 5 S.
Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Armenia Needs a New Opposition
Armenia Needs a New OppositionHow the EU Can Help Institute Checks and Balances
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPstandpunkt 6, March 6, 2019, 3 pp.
In Armenia, last year’s Velvet Revolution ended a long period of autocratic rule. On assuming the office of prime minister, former opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan acquired a constitutional authority enhanced by wide popular support and the lack of effective opposition in parliament. While this helps him implement reforms, the absence of strong checks may prove harmful in the long run. The EU should help rebuild Armenia’s checks and balances to ensure the country’s sustainable transformation.
Moldova’s Weak Democracy Is a Growing Risk for Europe
by Cristina Gherasimov
First published as Expert Comment, Chatham House, February 26, 2019
The country’s politics have been captured by a corrupt elite, creating a worrying security risk on the edge of Europe.
„A state does not get a Silicon Valley at the press of a button”
„A state does not get a Silicon Valley at the press of a button”Jane Zavalishina about Russia’s digital economy
by Alena Epifanova
Russia’s potential for digital innovation is enormous, talents abound and banks as well as state authorities are often more digitally adept than their Western counterparts when it comes to dealing with end customers. Nonetheless, the conditions set by the state impede the sector’s competitiveness. This also hinders much needed investments for Russian start-ups that require access to global markets.
Nord Stream 2: The Dead-End of Germany’s Ostpolitik
by Stefan Meister
Berlin Policy Journal, 20. Februar 2019
The fight about the pipeline was supposed to give Germany cause to rethink its foreign-policy. Instead, Berlin is supporting a project that will hurt its credibility.
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