External Publications

Jun 11, 2026

The Real Problem With Global Trade

How China’s Currency Manipulation Is Warping the World Economy
Shahin Vallée
An outdoor electronic screen shows the central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan against the U.S. dollar on April 8, 2025 in Shanghai, China.
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Exchange rates shape global trade. In this Foreign Affairs article, Brad Setser and DGAP expert Shahin Vallée explain how China’s undervalued currency fuels its growing trade surplus—and why tariffs alone will not solve the problem.

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As the Group of Seven meets in Évian, France, beginning June 15, French President Emmanuel Macron has pushed to bring about a broad recognition that rising trade imbalances are a global economic problem. But G-7 leaders will nevertheless likely ignore one of the most important sources of those imbalances: the undervaluation of the currencies of Asia’s large economies, especially China’s.

This is unfortunate. There is a growing consensus that Asia’s trade surplus has grown too big. But without discussion of currency undervaluation, there is little chance that the G-7 can mount a meaningful effort to change the policies that have given rise to these imbalances.

Please find the full article co-authored by Shahin Vallée and Brad Setser here.

Bibliographic data

Vallée, Shahin. “The Real Problem With Global Trade.” June 2026.

This is an excerpt of the article by Brad Setser and Shahin Vallée, published in Foreign Affairs on June 11, 2026. Please find the full text here.