This text was written by Emily Adams in the framework of her German Chancellor Fellowship (2024–2025) under the supervision of Rachel Tausendfreund at DGAP and supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
Across democracies, economic dislocation has become a driving force of political outcomes. When voters in democratic nations perceive that their economies stop working for the public good and inequalities undermine confidence in the system, they often lose trust in institutions and seek change. In Germany, persistent regional economic inequalities – particularly between East and West and in former industrial hubs – are shaping political behavior in ways that mirror broader transatlantic trends. The German Economic Opportunity Index (GOI) provides a data-driven framework to measure and visualize these disparities.
Measuring Opportunity: What the GOI Reveals about Economic Inequality
The GOI is a composite index based on publicly available data from the Federal Statistical Office Regional Database (2021 to 2023) and similar methodologies. It includes key economic indicators such as unemployment rate, GDP per capita, disposable income, start-up and business closure rates, new apartment construction, net migration, and the share of students leaving secondary school without a basic degree. While many factors influence economic opportunity, these are measurable variables that change over time due to policy interventions, economic forces, and regional trends. As different indicators are measured in different units (e.g., percentages, euros, absolute numbers), they are standardized using min-max normalization and rescaled from 0 to 100. Here, 100 represents the highest value observed across all districts and 0 the lowest. The directionality of the indicators is set by what is favorable. The final “opportunity score” is the unweighted average of all indicators for each district. In total, the index includes 400 observations.
Mapping the GOI shows that the East-West divide is profound and persistent – nearly all districts in eastern Germany are within the lowest quartile of the opportunity scores. Yet, there are also former industrial regions in western Germany that experience signs of economic stagnation. Regions such as the Ruhr Area (Ruhrgebiet) and Saarland show similarly low opportunity scores, indicating broader structural economic challenges beyond the legacies of reunification. Brandenburg stands out as an exception among eastern states, likely due to recent investments and its proximity to Berlin. Meanwhile, nine of the ten highest-scoring opportunity districts are in Bavaria.
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Data source: dl-de/by-2-0, https://www.govdata.de/dl-de/by-2-0; data configurations completed by Emily Adams |
A closer look reveals that three of Germany’s historically deindustrialized regions – the Ruhr Area, Eastern Germany, and parts of the federal states of Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate – show the lowest economic opportunity scores in Germany. These are indicated in the graphics by darker red colors. For example, in the Ruhr Area, the districts of Gelsenkirchen and Kerne have the lowest scores. In Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate, it is Birkenfeld, Neunkirchen, and the so-called Regionalverband Saarbrücken. In Saxony-Anhalt, the lowest scoring districts are Manfeld-Südharz and Stendal.
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Data source: dl-de/by-2-0, https://www.govdata.de/dl-de/by-2-0; data configurations completed by Emily Adams |
The Political Consequences of Economic Discontent
The observations of the GOI are reflected in Germany’s evolving electoral landscape. In Germany, each voter casts two votes: the first for a constituency candidate and the second for a party’s list of candidates in their federal state. In the national elections held on February 23, 2025, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) dominated first and second votes in the eastern part of the country, the territory of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). In addition, the AfD was able to win the majority of second votes in two districts in western Germany: Kaiserslautern and Gelsenkirchen. Both of these districts, like those in eastern Germany, share histories of industrial decline and economic grievances that continue to shape political sentiment. The findings suggest that low economic opportunity correlating with higher AfD voting is not an exclusively eastern German issue. Instead, it suggests a broader economic vulnerability in Germany’s deindustrialized regions where the economic and social consequences of structural transitions have not been resolved by policy interventions.
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Key: CDU=Christian Democratic Union (represented in Bavaria by its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU)); SPD=Social Democratic Party; AfD=Alternative for Germany; Grüne=Green Party; FDP=Free Democratic Party; Linke=The Left; BSW=Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht |
However, AfD support is not solely confined to low-opportunity areas. The party increased its share of votes across districts in Germany, including those in high scoring, opportunity-rich regions like Bavaria and Baden Württemberg. While regional economic disparities contribute to voter discontent, other factors – such as attitudes toward migration, dissatisfaction with federal policies, and other general economic concerns – drive support for the AfD.
The following map shows the percent gain that the AfD made from the national election held in 2021 to the one held in 2025. Darker blue colors indicate a larger percent increase in voter support for the AfD in these federal elections. Throughout Germany, the AfD received more votes – not one district reduced its support for the party. On average, voting districts in Germany increased their support by 10.5 percent of votes per district. There is a distinct relationship between the lowest scoring opportunity districts in Eastern Germany and the largest gains by the AfD in 2025.
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Data source: Die Bundeswahlleiterin, data configurations completed by Emily Adams |
The Broader Implications for Germany and Europe
Germany is not alone in facing regional economic inequalities. Across the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe, former industrial heartlands have become pivotal battlegrounds where economic grievances shape political outcomes. As seen in Germany, economic disparities provide fertile ground for political forces that challenge democratic norms and advocate for policies that could weaken commitments to European integration, migration, and transatlantic alliances. Addressing these disparities is not just a domestic imperative but also a matter of overall economic security and democratic resilience. Persistent economic inequalities can erode competitiveness, deter investment, and place long-term strain on public resources, ultimately diminishing Germany’s production and influence in European and global markets.
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Methodology Appendix
- Unemployment
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- National average: 5.7%
- All people who have been registered as unemployed while actively seeking work.
- Description of data point in the original German: Arbeitslosenquote 2023
- GDP per Capita
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- National average: €43,292
- Gross domestic product in current prices in the year divided by the number of adult inhabitants in the country.
- Description of data point in the original German: Bruttoinlandsprodukt je EW 2021
- Disposable Income
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- National average: €24,415
- The amount available to private households for the purpose of consumption or savings.
- Description of data point in the original German: Verfügbares Einkommen je EW 2021
- New Apartment Availability
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- National average: 3.5 per 1,000 residents
- Describes the regional structure of new residential construction per 1,000 residents. The parameter is meant to capture new development and increasing available housing stock.
- Description of data point in the original German: Fertiggestellte Wohnungen je 1.000 EW 2023
- Start-ups
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- National average: 8.0%
- Proportion of start-ups in the number of existing companies in the respective area. It describes the innovation environment of firms and the attractiveness for new local businesses. Complimentary indicator to the business closure rate.
- Description of data point in the original German: Anteil der Gründungen an der Anzahl der Bestandsunternehmen im jeweiligen Gebiet 2022
- Business Closures
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- National average: 8.7%
- Proportion of business closures in relation to the number of existing companies in the respective area. Complimentary indicator to the start-up rate.
- Description of data point in the original German: Anteil der Schließungen an der Anzahl der Bestandsunternehmen im jeweiligen Gebiet 2022
- Net Migration
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- National average: + 133.9
- Provides information on the relative increase or decrease in population per year. The population change is made up of natural population development, net migration, and population corrections.
- Description of data point in the original German: Bevölkerungsentwicklung im Jahr je 10.000 EW 2022
- School Dropout Rate
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- National average: 6.8%
- Percentage of students who leave school without a basic education degree and thus have the least favorable prerequisites for entering vocational training.
- Description of data point in the original German: Anteil Schulabgänger/-innen ohne Hauptschulabschluss 2023
- Oppportunity Score
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- Mean: 44.9
- Median: 46.2
- Minimum: 20.4
- Maximum: 70.1
- 400 total observations
