At a time when international cooperation is increasingly being called into question and isolationist tendencies are on the rise, Europe faces a crucial challenge: it must redefine its position in world politics and consolidate its own strength. The transatlantic partnership, once a reliable pillar of European security and economic stability, is coming under pressure. Europe must develop independent strategies to ensure economic resilience, military security, and political unity. Its future depends on whether it uses this crisis as an opportunity to strengthen its internal cohesion and to act as a global player.
The European Union is increasingly becoming the weaker player in a profoundly changing geopolitical and geoeconomic environment. While the United States and Asia are experiencing dynamic growth, the EU is losing competitiveness and economic strength, thereby eroding its most important power factor. The stability in its neighborhood, on which the EU has long been able to rely, is no longer a given. Following the Russian attack on Ukraine, the European security order has to be redefined. European states are being forced to take more responsibility for their own security, especially as the United States is shifting its foreign and security policy priorities to the Indo-Pacific and China.
Europe may find itself in a difficult position and the challenges may be great, but the years 2024 and 2025 offer the EU a crucial opportunity to reshape its international role. The new European Commission has taken up its duties; Mark Rutte was appointed NATO Secretary General in October 2024; and in January 2025, Donald Trump will enter the White House for a second term, presiding over the West’s most powerful nation. In a geoeconomic and geopolitical environment increasingly beset with conflict, Europe must position itself more strongly as an international actor and make a significantly greater contribution to the transatlantic partnership. All of this will come at a higher price for the European states, and policymakers will have to explain more than ever why a greater commitment is necessary.
How Europe Is Entering This New Phase
The EU must evolve considerably in order to better promote its interests in its neighborhood and around the world, becoming a strong and reliable partner for relevant states. For about 15 years, the Union has been reacting to crises that it had not been designed to address and for which it does not have sufficient instruments. In terms of security policy, Russia’s attack on Ukraine poses the greatest challenge. But not the only one: in previous years, US President Donald Trump had already called the transatlantic alliance in the form of NATO into question, put Germany and Europe under economic pressure, and significantly reduced US support for international organizations. Trump’s election to a second term has led to renewed uncertainty, for example, regarding the credibility of NATO’s mutual defense clause or how support for Ukraine can be maintained when the United States is significantly reducing its contribution. Furthermore, it has become important to credibly assure the new Trump administration that Europe will make a stronger contribution – not only to our own security on the continent but also in other regions of the world, particularly in Asia, where the United States sees its interests under increasing pressure.
It is worth noting that Europe can already take credit for a number of important developments in recent years: in 2017, the EU launched the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), in which 26 EU member states are now participating, along with the United Kingdom, Norway, the United States, Canada, and Switzerland as third-party states. PESCO aims to close defense gaps and improve resource efficiency.
When Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, EU member states reacted very quickly: they agreed on military and financial support, imposed comprehensive sanctions in coordination with the US and other partners, and gradually reduced the dependence on Russian fossil energy imports. A joint gas purchasing platform pools EU market power akin to Europe’s coordinated vaccine procurement in the coronavirus crisis.
At the same time, a new view of China has emerged. Europe is now better at protecting its interests – although it still needs the close economic relationship. One example of a new risk management approach is the screening of foreign direct investment to prevent vulnerability in critical value chains; another is the broadening of raw materials partnerships to reduce one-sided dependencies on China. Europe is also taking a much more critical look at interdependencies in the health sector. The EU has thus learned from past crises and acquired new crisis management tools.
Internal Challenges and Institutional Obstacles
This progress should not obscure the fact that the EU also needs to be strengthened considerably at the internal level. One of its central decision-making weaknesses is the unanimity rule in foreign and security policy, which often prevents quick decisions. Although the Union has shown unity in its support for Ukraine and its sanctions against Russia, there is disagreement among member states on other foreign policy issues, such as the Middle East conflict or relations with China.
It is unlikely that the majority principle will be introduced on these issues anytime soon, as many states want to retain their veto. It is more likely that smaller groups of EU states will move forward. Furthermore, the new EU trio – Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Council President António Costa, and High Representative Kaja Kallas – must better coordinate their messaging to strengthen the EU’s international impact.
The EU’s international clout is closely tied to its economic strength. Russia’s war on Ukraine and its consequences, particularly rising energy prices, have exacerbated the EU’s economic weaknesses and reduced Europe’s attractiveness for energy-intensive industries. At the same time, supply chains disrupted by the pandemic and the war continue to be a problem, hindering the production of many European companies.
Europe’s dependence on energy and raw material imports from Russia and China poses economic risks. These dependencies, in conjunction with the strategic industrial measures taken by China and the US, are aggravating the situation. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Chinese subsidies for key technologies such as renewable energies distort competition and place an additional burden on Europe. With Trump’s imminent return to the White House, Europe is now facing a new chapter of trade tensions: his administration could impose blanket tariffs of 10 percent on all imports and tariffs of 60 percent on imports from China. In the field of semiconductor production, Europe is also lagging behind the United States and Asia, despite the European Chips Act of 2022. Europe needs a new economic and technology policy agenda to remain competitive and assert its global position.
The Rule of Law: An Asset Worth Protecting
Another serious problem for the EU is the undermining of the rule of law in member states such as Hungary and Poland. Political interference in judicial institutions and restrictions on press freedom threaten the EU’s cohesion and its credibility abroad. The change of government in Poland, where Donald Tusk returned to power in October 2023 after eight years of rule by the right-wing populist PiS party, offers hope for improvement. But the road back to a functioning democracy is difficult.
The erosion of the rule of law also affects the EU’s enlargement process as well as its international appeal. It is increasingly difficult to demand high standards of the rule of law from candidate countries when existing members undermine them. To protect the rule of law, budgetary conditionality should be extended to the EU budget, and in the case of a treaty reform, Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union should be amended to simplify the activation mechanism. In addition, one should introduce automated responses to serious violations of the Union’s fundamental values.
Outlook: Resilience and Support
Karl Kaiser’s analysis remains relevant today: “The EU is only perceived to a limited extent as a global political actor,” although the tasks that the EU has to tackle internationally have increased significantly. If it wants to advance new international partnerships, defend its security against encroaching autocracies, and further develop the global order, the EU must strengthen its resilience in democratic, institutional, economic, and technological terms. This also includes jointly strengthening European defense capabilities within NATO. Only by doing so can the EU cope with growing external pressure, including from the United States, and assert itself as an international actor. However, this will only work if popular support is established, which requires honestly addressing the many internal and external challenges and developing adequate – that is to say, ambitious – responses. Following Karl Kaiser, it is important to convey to the public the importance of investing in a European Union that is strong both internally and externally.
This text is a chapter from the book “Paths to the Future: Perspectives on Foreign Policy: On the 90th Birthday of Karl Kaiser”. You can access the full version in the PDF above or via the e-book.
