Panel examines Germany’s Russia policy against the background of the Ukraine crisis
German foreign policy has been predicated upon reaching understanding with Russia. But these days, is it even possible for Berlin to still find conversation partners in Moscow? Is the strategy not doomed to failure and therefore in need of overhaul? These questions were put on the table at the beginning of the event, which was moderated Eberhard Sandschneider, director of the DGAP’s research institute. Thomas Bagger said he saw no alternative to Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s current course, since the short-term efforts to defuse such a fundamental crisis are critical. At the same time, Berlin has not in the past always read the signals sent by Russia correctly, and German foreign policy must now address this deficit. Certain, however, is that Moscow has been moving away from the West for some time already and also sees its future in terms of this demarcation.
Manuel Sarrazin of the Green party noted that the developments of the past years make clear that the Russian domestic political situation has determined Moscow’s foreign policy thinkingfor some time. There is therefore a need to strengthen expertise within both German and European foreign policy circles as well as to give stronger support to Russian civil society. Nobody expected the Kremlin to react so harshly, and Russia has made it all too clear that it is incapable of serving as a long-term partner for stability. The situation significantly restricts the scope of foreign policy action, for as long as Russia shows no interest in stability – or at least a return to the status quo ante – the discussion will simply remain stalled at the underlying issues.
Stefan Meister, too, sees the state of Russia's domestic policies as the fundamental problem. Weaknesses in the “Putin system” – its lack of strategies for economic and political modernization, or even a desire for them – served as the basis for developments in Ukraine. So did the massive degree to which the public has been influenced by propaganda and the creation of an external enemy. Moscow’s power elite needs this bogeyman to legitimize itself continually and to create public support. It is worth noting that approval ratings for Putin’s policies soared to over 80 percent after the annexation of the Crimea. Germany and Europe must analyze such developments in Russia more comprehensively, because the Putin system, with its policies of self-imposed isolation and outward aggression, is not going to vanish overnight, certainly not as soon as some would wish.
The participants, speaking before about 130 audience members from politics and business, were divided on the subject of how to assess the state of the Modernization Partnership – which Germany and Russia established in 2008 for the purpose of improving cooperation on a range of issues, from law and health policy to energy efficiency and transport infrastructure. While Thomas Bagger asked whether things possibly functioned more smoothly in the policy area than expected, Stefan Meister expressed his concern that the partnership had been fundamentally naïve. Germany sought out the wrong partners, and as a result, the dialogue was conducted almost exclusively with the power elite. The elites, however, have little or no interest in genuine change, since they ultimately profit from the system as it is.
Sarrazin suggested that a debate on strategy be conducted for formulating Europe’s Russia policy. The EU and Germany need a clear agenda for approaching Moscow, for one thing in order to demonstrate unity and for another, to show clear boundaries to Russia. For this reason, supporting other post-Soviet states – particularly the Republic of Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine – is of enormous importance for European Neighborhood Policy, since their national development should not be ignored.
Bagger closed the discussion with a hint about what form the German government’s Russia strategy will take. Identifying shared concerns should be a long-term goal of foreign policy geared toward reaching understanding, but this will not work until everyone shares the same language.
