EU Foreign Policy and the Refugee Crisis

Stephan Auer, the European External Action Service’s director for multilateral relations and global issues, provided a comprehensive analysis of the EU’s efforts to address the external challenges related to the refugee crisis and highlighted the need for a holistic approach to respond to such a multifaceted phenomenon. According to Auer, with the European Agenda on Migration that is now in place, the European Council already laid out a comprehensive framework in 2015, demonstrating considerable political will. He emphasized, however, that the EU must tackle the root causes of migration in order to adequately address the challenges stemming from irregular migration via the eastern and central Mediterranean. The EU must significantly increase its efforts to contribute to a conflict resolution in Syria and Libya, bringing about peaceful transitions, and improving the human rights situation there. If instability and social and economic deprivation persist in the countries of origin and transit, so, too, will the unprecedented flow of migrants.

Roderick Parkes, senior analyst at the European Institute for Security Studies, challenged the existing thinking on irregular migration. In his view, the rather simplistic image of migrants moving via transit countries from the “push-zones” of failing states such as Syria and Afghanistan to a stable Western “pull-zone” no longer holds true. “In reality, the push-and-pull dynamics have changed dramatically since 2008, when the US and the EU were hit hard by economic crises,” Parkes argued. He pointed out that refugees to the EU are no longer coming just from failed states but are also propelled to leave emerging powers like Iran, which are exploiting them as additional leverage in regional power plays. This new dynamic makes it much more complex for the EU to develop a more comprehensive response. In addition, in “pull-zones” within the EU itself, diaspora communities will play an increasingly important role and risk importing ideological or ethnic conflicts in the absence of robust integration policies. Finally, transit countries like the those of Western Balkans and Turkey also exert increasing influence of their own on migrant flows, for example in terms of “brain drain” or within the context of EU accession negotiations.

Annette Weber, senior fellow in the Middle East and Africa research division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), focused on the Horn of Africa as a region of origin and transit for migration to Europe. She noted that the root causes spurring migration from this region are extremely diverse, ranging from poverty to pressures caused by climate change (particularly water scarcity) to regional conflicts and jihadist terrorism. Weber highlighted the conflicts in South Sudan and Somalia. She explained that while most migrants and displaced people remain in the region in the hopes of soon returning to their homes, a growing number, particularly from Eritrea, are also moving to Europe. Weber argued that European efforts to work with the countries of the region to tackle the root causes of migration within the framework of the Khartoum Process (launched in November 2014 to stem trafficking and smuggling of migrants between the Horn of Africa and Europe) have thus far failed. Rather, the countries of the region are exploiting such efforts in order to gain an additional bargaining chip vis-à-vis the EU.

The DGAP’s Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies invited the panelists as part of its Brussels Briefing series. Program Officer Julian Rappold chaired the discussion.