These operations comprise an estimated 90 percent of the Security Council’s job. As president, Germany also hopes to lead debates on the security impact of climate change and the protection of children in conflict.
The Arab Spring is of primary importance for the Security Council heading into the next month. While the transitions in Tunisia and Egypt have been relatively bloodless and fast-paced, leaving UNSC intervention unnecessary, Libya lies at the other end of the spectrum, with a full-scale international intervention approved by the UNSC. In addition, United Nations sanctions against Libya have been broadly and deeply applied. Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain were categorized as nations where repression has occurred without international intervention. Other nations in the Middle East, including Jordan, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia, have shown varying signs of a democratic upheavals, but there has been no reason for UN intervention thus far. Sooner or later, as came up in the discussion, the UN Security Council will have to debate measures to control the post-conflict situation in Libya – and for that, the EU will be a prime partner. The EU members of the Security Council debate on a daily basis about current issues facing the Council, even including other EU states through the Union’s networks.
Sudan will also prove to keep the UN Security Council busy in July, as the separation of the country presents the possibility of violent escalation and war. A prolonged conflict in Sudan would threaten the security of the entire African continent. While it was predicted that the country would become more peaceful following South Sudan’s successful referendum on independence, this has certainly not been the case. The recently established mission to South Sudan, with over 4,000 Ethiopian soldiers, canbe viewed as both a peacekeeping mission as well as a large civil society project and will attempt to quickly build up South Sudan’s institutional capacity.
Climate change and its impact on security will also be an emphasis during Germany’s Security Council presidential term. Fearing that global warming will affect the survival of numerous small island nations in the UN, as well as coastal regions, which could simply be flooded by rising oceans, Germany is hoping to raise attention for this problem in the United Nations. This discussion has been set for July 20th.
Germany will also focus on the enhanced protection of civilians, especially children, within humanitarian response missions. Humanitarian intervention forces have changed from being pure buffers between fighting state parties to trying to prevent attacks from groups of non-state actors upon the civilian population. A resolution to this effect will be introduced into the UNSC on July 12th.
Other topics of upcoming relevance are the future of the UN mission to Afghanistan, Palestine’s possible future status in the UN, as well as the UN internal split regarding further interventions in the Middle East following the vote on Libya.
July will be a month full of challenges for the UN Security Council, with Germany in the leading role to tackle those challenges as it assumes the role of the presidency.