Marius Strubenhoff is a foreign policy expert and historian. Having joined ELNET in 2020, he took on the role of Program Manager for foreign and security policy at the Berlin office in April 2023. He specialises in German-Israeli relations and takes a particular interest in the Abraham Accords process and the Iranian challenge to Middle Eastern security. After pursuing a doctorate in history at the University of Cambridge, he worked as a Lecturer at the University of Sheffield.

Policy Project: Addressing the Russian-Iranian Dilemma in the Middle East

Deepening collaboration between Russia and Iran after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War poses a headache for German and European decision-makers. On the one hand, in the European theatre, the war in Ukraine means that Russia needs to be confronted and its capabilities contained. In the Middle East, the picture is more complex. Russian support for authoritarian regimes such as Syria’s Assad government means it also plays a clear adversary role in the region. However, as a signatory of the JCPOA, Russia is also needed as a partner for dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue. The flare up of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict since mid-September 2022 (at that point under the impression of Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast) shows that waning Russian influence in the region also carries risks. In Syria and elsewhere, Iran could profit from such a development.  
 
This situation leads to a policy trade-off that forces Europeans to make tough decisions. Europe has a clear interest in confronting the Russian as well as Iranian threat in Europe and the Middle East. However, dual containment policies could have the effect of bolstering Russian-Iranian collaboration, thus facilitating the emergence of a fully-fledged Russian-Iranian alliance. My work will address this policy dilemma, raising issues closely relevant to the work of German government decision-makers, including: strategies for dealing with waning Russian influence in the Middle East in the case of a Russian defeat in Ukraine; efforts to contribute to the security of countries such as Israel and Armenia who carefully consider their relationship with Russia for security reasons; collaboration with Russia regarding the Iranian nuclear file.