The European Parliament Briefings were issued on July 5th, 2024 and the full document can be found here. Christian Mölling, Sören Hellmonds and András Rácz contributed with briefings No. 1, 2, and 4.
Briefing No. 1: Sovereign: A dynamic defence industrial and technological base
It will be a key responsibility of the next European Parliament to ensure the defence of Europe, including by shaping a powerful European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). While this vision has existed since 2007, the conditions for the added value that the EU institutions can deliver have changed, especially due to geopolitical dynamics: the ongoing war by Russia and the urgent need to deter Russia from future aggression against EU and NATO countries. The EDTIB needs to deliver more in shorter timeframes, integrating Ukraine into the EDTIB and expanding it to seize upcoming opportunities through a genuinely geopolitical approach. The EU aims to shape a new approach with the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), rebalancing the radical market-liberal paradigm towards one more driven by security policy. However, this shift adds internal EU challenges to te existing geopolitical ones. Successfully managing this mix will demand more evidence about the EDTIB’s state and potential, more resources, and a convincing approach to the massive short-term demands, alongside a flagship project that proves EU institutional concepts are effective.
Authors: Christian Mölling & Sören Hellmonds
Briefing No. 2: Capable: From ‘paper tigers’ to rapid and effective presence on the ground
The next European Parliament carries extraordinary responsibilities regarding the security and defence of the EU and Europe as a whole. It is elected at a time when the EU must redefine its contributions to European security and defence. This particularly implies the careful reframing of EU policies that support deterrence and defence, balancing this against the EU’s traditional focus on crisis management. What is needed is a conscious adaptation to what Member States have been hastily doing since their Versailles Declaration: taking greater responsibility for European security by implementing total defence concepts. These are comprehensive security concepts that improve the defence and resilience capacities of armed forces, defence industries, and societies. An isolated improvement of civilian or military capabilities, such as the Rapid Deployment Capacity, is neither useful nor feasible.
Author: Christian Mölling
Briefing No. 4: Responsive: Hybrid warfare and the implications of the Wagner model
Russia has a rich past of employing proxy forces, including private military companies (PMCs) for the covert projection of state power. The Wagner Group was created exactly for this purpose and proved to be highly successful, both in Ukraine and in the Middle East, as well as in Africa. However, the participation of Wagner in the full-scale war against Ukraine has ended Russia’s deniability that it was using the Group as a proxy and has led to its erosion and integration into the Russian state’s defence establishment. This paper argues that the demise of the Wagner Group following the failed mutiny in June 2023 does not decrease the risks originating from Russia employing PMCs for hybrid warfare purposes. The replacement of Wagner by the Redut Group, an entity completely controlled by the Russian military intelligence, is only improving the efficiency of PMCs as tools of hybrid warfare. Meanwhile, the overall logic of how the Kremlin is using them is likely to remain unchanged.
Author: András Rácz
