In Russia's Hands
The ceasefire of 9 November 2020 brought an end to the second Nagorno-Karabakh war and appears to have stabilised the strategic situation until the first mandate of the Russian peacekeeping contingent deployed to the region expires in November 2025. However, the ceasefire agreement does not provide for a political settlement of the conflict. Due to Armenia’s military defeat Karabakhi Armenians are left with no option but to rely on Russia as a security guarantor.
This text is part of a brief in the Conflict Series for the European Union Institute for Security Studies. You can download the full brief here.