As a part of her “Strategic Europe” blog for Carnegie Europe’s website, Judy Dempsey asked a selection of foreign and security policy experts, including the DGAP’s Milan Nič, about the future of populism in Europe.
Milan Nič answers: Such triumphalism is short term and delusional. Yes, the far Right suffered a beating in the first round of the presidential election in France, at a key turning point for the EU. But in Hungary under the increasingly authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as well as in Greece, Poland, and some other EU countries, populists are not on the run but running the show. Even in France, if one looks closer, populist candidates together received almost half of the vote on April 23. The far-right National Front might still win the French parliamentary election in June.
Let’s not forget that Europe’s societies are still very polarized, with many tensions running high. This is still an age of populism that gives strong cards to charismatic leaders who thrive on conflict and manipulation of national identities shaken by powerful processes of globalization. Huge parts of electorates can be mobilized against the system and elites, which they feel have let them down. French centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron showed that politicians can also mobilize with hope and perspective. After all, elections are about a choice: the key is to have a credible alternative that can connect with society, especially young people, and stand up to the populists.
If elected president on May 7, Macron will need to heal a bitterly divided country and, at the same time, implement unpopular reforms. The tide might turn against him. One persistent danger is the so-called mainstreaming of populism. Even if populists lose elections, it is important to what extent their agendas shape and, at times, dominate the politics of their country — be it Austria, France, or the Netherlands.
Read the entire entry on the Carnegie Europe Blog here.
Milan Nič is Senior Fellow at the DGAP’s Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia.
