In continuation of their counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces have managed to solidify their positions on the eastern side of the Oskil River. Russian troops, which withdrew in the face the Ukrainian advance, have tried to establish a lasting defensive line along the Oskil, but two Ukrainian bridgeheads are endangering it.
In the north, Ukrainian troops managed to regain the railway hub of Kupyansk and are advancing further eastward. With this push they are endangering the ground lines of communication of the Russian troops fighting in the Luhansk region.
Meanwhile, in the south Ukrainian forces solidified the bridgehead northeast of the confluence of the Oskil and Seversky Donets Rivers. Hence, Russian troops there cannot much rely on either of these rivers any more as defensive lines.
Through heavy fighting, Ukrainian forces are approaching the town of Lyman, a crucial railway hub in the northern part of the Donetsk region. During the spring and the summer, Russia heavily relied on Lyman as a logistical point to supply its offensive against the Ukrainian-held parts of the Donbas salient.
Based on the current trends of fighting in the region, Russian troops are unlikely to be able to hold Lyman much longer. Their supply lines are largely cut and Ukrainian forces are attempting to encircle the city from the north, west, and south. The most likely outcome is that the surviving Russian troops will gradually retreat from Lyman in order to avoid encirclement.
However, even after Ukraine manages to liberate Lyman, this will not result in the destabilization of Russia’s front line in Donbas or in the weakening of its hold of the rest of Donbas. The reason is that, even if the fall of Lyman makes Russia’s ground lines of communication leading from the Russian Valuyki region to the south vulnerable, its army can still rely on other parallel north-south supply routes located east of Lyman, leading through the occupied parts of the Luhansk region.
Besides, even if all these routes were severed or endangered by Ukraine’s long-range artillery, Russia can still supply the separatist entities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions from the east from the Russian Rostov region. Moscow has supported the separatist entities via this eastern route for the past eight years, so this is a tried-and-tested supply channel.
The main significance of the battle for Lyman lies elsewhere. The town’s upcoming liberation matters because this will put an end to Russia’s ambitions to lay siege to the northern part of Donbas and to encircle it from the north. Once Lyman returns under Ukrainian control, Russian pressure on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will decrease significantly.
In addition, once Ukraine manages to secure Lyman, the town’s important railway connections to the south and the west will serve its military effort. This will be even more so the case if Yampil is liberated too.
If Ukraine can repair the railway lines damaged in the fighting, Lyman as a crucial railway hub will start supporting its military efforts by bringing in supplies and reinforcements from the country’s more western regions. Kyiv’s ability to supply the Donbas front would improve significantly.
What is more, the sham “referendums” organized by Moscow in the four regions it controls are likely to soon result in their illegal annexation into Russia. This would include Lyman and Yampil, which are located in the Donetsk region. However, once Ukraine manages to recapture these cities and to solidify its control over the northern part of the Donetsk region, it will become a lot harder for Russia to retake these territories.
