Estonia: Sven Sakkov

Estonia’s National Security Concept stipulates that NATO’s ultimate security guarantee is its nuclear deterrent. This must be credible and available in the Alliance’s European territory. The fact that NATO was, is and remains a nuclear alliance is politically uncontroversial in Estonia.

Germany is the biggest country in the European part of NATO, a very wealthy country with formidable armed forces. In Estonian political circles Germany is considered to be too much of an advocate of Russia and not enough of an advocate of Central-Eastern European security. German participation in NATO’s nuclear sharing has demonstrated that when it comes to the life-and-death issues and Article 5, Germany is a responsible NATO ally. By its potential withdrawal Germany would undermine that notion.

According to the National Security Concept, the credibility and political impact of NATO’s deterrence is largely determined by the Alliance’s unity and performance, as well as its capabilities and available resources. Germany leaving the nuclear sharing arrangement would have a detrimental effect on the cohesion of the Alliance. There will inevitably be a question of moving US B61 nuclear bombs from Germany to Poland and replacing Germany in a sharing role with Poland. Also there is bound to be public opposition to the hosting of nuclear weapons. Outside the expert community the fact that several European countries are hosting B61s and are party to nuclear sharing is not very well known. German political discussions will change that. The only country benefiting from these fissures will be the Russian Federation.