The straw that breaks the back of European nuclear sharing?

A German withdrawal from the nuclear sharing program would have a shock effect in NATO. On the one hand, it might lead to similar reactions from other allies participating in the arrangements, such as Belgium or the Netherlands. Under certain circumstances it might end the nuclear sharing program altogether, leading to a decreased level of deterrence in Europe.

On the other hand, it would open a discussion about a reform of nuclear sharing. This will put eastern-flank countries under pressure. Poland will see the need to preserve the arrangements by, for example, including new allies in the program and/or discussing the need to change NATO’s nuclear posture in Europe in order to adjust it to the challenge of the dual-capable land-based missile system deployed by Russia, that was the reason for the termination of the INF Treaty. This might lead to deepening intra-European and US-European rifts, and decrease the cohesion of NATO. The eastern flank will feel an increased exposure to the possibility of Russia “testing” the weakened solidarity among the allies.