Russia is the only winner

Dr. Māris Andžāns, Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Latvia

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Probably no immediate effects would be visible. It would be perceived to the east of Germany that it has decreased its military and political deterrent power. New compensating mechanisms might be sought, e.g. Poland might wish to take the role of Germany in nuclear sharing.

Russia would be the main benefactor of the situation in terms of weakening the transatlantic link and making its nuclear posture slightly more favourable.

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Dr. Māris Andžāns, Senior Research Fellow, Latvian Institute of International Affairs