Jun 19, 2020

No disarmament without reciprocation

Dr. Paal Hilde, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Norway
Photo and pull quote from Dr. Paal Hilde for the nuclear sharing article

Norway has previously supported withdrawing the B61s from Europe, even as a unilateral move. Given the evolution of European security in the past decade, Norway now holds the NATO consensus view that such a withdrawal should come as a result of negotiations with – and lead to reciprocal action by – Russia; despite the prospect of this being dim. 

A German decision to end its participation in technical nuclear sharing would not directly jeopardize allied security but would likely lead to a highly divisive debate. It could trigger a similar move by the Netherlands and potentially Belgium and Italy. This would leave no allied DCA in northern Europe and would likely increase the pressure from allies in the east to move the B61s, for example to Poland; a view that may gain traction in the United States, particularly if the present administration stays in office. (Norway would probably oppose moving the B61s to Poland, as presumably would Germany.) Given that the main significance of nuclear sharing is political rather than military, a unilateral German decision would thus weaken solidarity and political unity in NATO and therefore harm European security. I thus presume that Norway would prefer Germany not to rock the boat through unilateral decisions, but rather maintain a DCA capability until such time that negotiations with Russia are possible.

 

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Bibliographic data

 Dr. Paal Hilde, Associate Professor, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS)