Who is Iran’s new President Hassan Rouhani?
The Iranians elected Rouhani as a reformer. He could be called a liberal conservative. For the last four years he has been President of the Center for Strategic Research in Teheran, which was under the purview of former President Rafsanjani, who can also be seen as a liberal conservative
Rouhani is a lawyer and earned his PhD in Great Britain. His openness to the world distinguishes him from his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had a very closed worldview that was difficult to understand from the West – and consistently aggravated the international community.
Rouhani in contrast is no agitator. He looks for constructive solutions. As the Iranian chief negotiator at the international nuclear talks he demonstrated remarkable flexibility – and nevertheless pursued his goal tenaciously. I personally got to know and respect him at that time.
How independent is Rouhani from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
The leader of the revolution always has the last word. But he allows the president certain freedom. Within this framework Rouhani can set his own priorities. He does not have the greatest room to maneuver with foreign policy. But in economic policy he will have a more or less free hand. One can only hope that he leaves behind the populist policies of his predecessor. For example, Ahmadinejad attempted to earn the favor of the population by traveling through the province with promises of money.
Rouhani will not take on the leader of the revolution on questions of political principal. He also does not want to challenge the existing regime, but he will test the limits of the regime. Mohammad Khatami, the first reform-minded president of Iran, always caved in fast whenever he encountered resistance. Rouhani is tougher. He will be more resistant.
The incoming president will want to pursue more tolerant policies than those of his predecessor. He already announced that he wants to do more for youth and strengthen women's rights. And he received a big share of the youth vote, especially urban youth. In addition he was able to unite the reform-oriented voters. The two earlier Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami supported his election. And finally Rouhani was able to mobilize potential non-voters, unlike his competitors, and so profit from the high voter turnout.
Should we see a type of division of labor between the conservative religious leadership, who are in power for life, and a more reform-oriented president, this would add stability to Iran’s political system. For the leader of the revolution, the high voter turnout was already an indicator of the legitimacy of the system.
What course will Rouhani set for his foreign policy?
The state ideology naturally sets very narrow confines for the president. Particularly when it comes to Israel, or to Iran’s self image as a regional power. The anti-Israeli ideology is simply a part of the system. Rouhani cannot change the principle positions. However, we will not hear from him the same aggressively anti-Israeli rhetoric that his predecessor used. Rouhani will strike a moderate tone and pursue very cautious policies. I expect we will see a careful foreign policy readjustment.
For Iran, relations with Lebanon and Syria are of existential importance. The Shiite regime has historically maintained close links with its fellow believers in southern Lebanon. And Teheran will do its utmost to uphold its good relations with Syria and to secure its influence throughout the country – even if President Assad is not able to retain power. Therefore Iran is interested in taking part in the planned Syrian conference – but it’s doubtful that the USA and Saudi Arabia will allow this.
What does the change in personnel mean for the international nuclear talks?
The future President Hassan Rouhani headed the Iranian delegation in the beginning of the international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear dossier from 2003 to 2005. I took part in the negotiations at the time as one of the three ambassadors of what was called the E3 formats (from the EU countries of Germany, France and Great Britain). Rouhani was always flexible and noticeably interested in finding a solution – which later brought him criticism by his successor Larijani and President Ahmadinejad.
Today, ten years later, it seems unrealistic to still be talking about an Iranian withdrawal from uranium enrichment. In 2003 the enrichment was still in its early stages, with just a few centrifuges. Today in contrast the nuclear program is very much more advanced, with 6000 to 8000 centrifuges in operation. Iran will therefore assert its right to enrich uranium just like any other state.
But the question remains, what objective guarantees can Tehran give that it will not use its nuclear capacity for military purposes. The goals of the talks are not going to change much in the future. But I anticipate a substantially flexible direction in talks on the part of Iran.
How should Germany behave now?
It was right that the Federal government welcomed Rouhani’s election and in doing so indicate that we have certain expectations. We should now show restraint until the new president has been inaugurated. Not only in terms of statements. We also should not enact any new sanctions, as it is being discussed in the United States. It also wouldn’t be right to follow the motto “keep all your options open,” as the US sees it, which is including the possibility of a military strike. In contrast, we should keep all options in relations toward Iran open to the effect that we don’t spoil the chances for a new beginning by sending negative signals.
Paul von Maltzahn is the General Secretary of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). From 2003 to 2006 he was the German ambassador to Iran.
