EU-Turkey Relations after the Coup

Patrick Paquet, deputy head of the Turkey unit at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR), presented the key findings of the Commission’s annual Progress Report on the status of the enlargement process with Turkey and provided the context against which the report was drafted. He explained that by adding a special section in the report, the Commission acknowledges the significance of the impact of the July 2016 attempted military coup and provides a thorough assessment of measures taken in its aftermath. Paquet emphasized that the annual report signals that that the EU is not casting a blind eye on recent developments in Turkey irrespective of the EU-Turkey agreement on refugees. In fact, the report should serve as a clear reference point for the Turkish government, Turkish civil society, the European public, and EU partners, of what the EU expects from the Turkish government regarding political reform, as well as respecting the rule of law and fundamental rights.

Andreas Nick, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and Turkey rapporteur of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, argued that the recent developments in Turkey call for a reality check on the EU’s influence on democratic reform in Turkey: “From a German perspective, we have to be realistic about the fact that we have very limited leverage on what is going on in Turkey and that we have to live with [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, forces willing to turn away from Europe currently have the upper hand in Turkey,” Nick pointed out. He added that “geography remains,” meaning that there is little reason to believe that any problem in the region can be solved without the involvement of or against the will of Turkey.

Asli Aydintaşbaş, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), offered a view from Turkey. She highlighted that the progress report will not have an impact on the political process in the country due to the mainstream media’s willful ignorance of the Commission’s findings. Still, in her view, the EU has a lot of economic leverage that it can use to influence the domestic situation within Turkey. She argued that by brokering the EU-Turkey agreement on refugees, the EU gave the impression that it wants to re-energize the EU accession process. In fact, the EU is neither ready for the accession of Turkey nor willing to push for democratic reforms within the country. She called for a new conceptual framework for EU-Turkey relations, one that acknowledges the current realities.

Günter Seufert, senior fellow in the research division on EU/Europe at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), questioned the ability and willingness of EU member states to reach a joint position on Turkey including red lines but also “carrots” regarding the country’s domestic developments. Reflecting on Germany’s leverage, Seufert argued that Berlin alone does not have enough “sticks” to influence the Turkish government. He did not share criticism toward the German government for not having pushed Ankara enough for reforms due to Germany’s dependence on Turkey in the refugee crisis, and he underlined that other EU member states who are much less vulnerable with regard to refugee flows did not show stronger engagement either.

The DGAP’s Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies invited the panelists as part of its Brussels Briefing series. Jana Puglierin, head of the center, chaired the discussion.