DGAP Core Expertise Publication page

  • Eastern Challenges for Josep Borrell – and the EU

    von Milan Nič, Cristina Gherasimov | Europe, European Union
    DGAPstandpunkt 26 (September 2019), 3 pp.

    Eastern Challenges for Josep Borrell – and the EU

    As the European Union’s next designated HR/VP, Josep Borrell will have to deal with major global challenges and the EU’s internal travails to shape foreign policy more assertively. In particular, two flash points on the EU’s doorstep – the eastern Ukraine and Serbia-Kosovo – will be early tests of Borell’s ability to enhance the Union’s ability to project influence as a global power and help build its capacity for strategic autonomy.

  • Putin’s Regime on the Path to More Repression

    After Russia’s Regional Elections

    von András Rácz | Russia, Elections
    DGAPviewpoint 24 (September 2019), 3 pp.

    Putin’s Regime on the Path to More Repression

    In the Russian regional elections on 8 September 2019, the ruling party United Russia managed to largely hold on its control over state assemblies and governorships. Even in Moscow, where United Russia was significantly weakened, there was no liberal breakthrough. But the elections did not solve any of the inherent political and social tensions—it only made them more visible. Thus, protest potential is going to remain high, which will likely cause the regime to become even more repressive.

  • Eurasia: Playing Field or Battle Field?

    Defining an Effective German and European Approach on Connectivity Toward China and Russia

    von Jacopo Maria Pepe | Central Asia, Trade
    DGAPanalysis 4 (July 2019), 22 pp.

    Eurasia: Playing Field or Battle Field?

    Eurasia is emerging as a fluid continent where resurgent great power politics by Russia and China is marginalizing Europe and the Western liberal order. Moscow and Beijing are linking their Eurasian integration projects, the Belt and Roads Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). To avoid marginalization, the EU and Germany should define an interest-driven, flexible and regionally diversified approach toward Moscow and Beijing, focusing on Greater Central Asia and Greater Eastern Europe.

  • From Ostpolitik to EU-Russia Interdependence

    Germany’s Perspective

    von Stefan Meister
    Published in "Post-Crimea Shift in EU-Russia Relations: From Fostering Interdependence to Managing Vulnerabilities", 2019, Kristi Raik & András Rácz (eds.)

    With the Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine, followed by Western sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions, German decision-makers had to learn that economic and energy interdependence not only creates win-win situations but also means vulnerability. The reaction was a shift from the dominance of the economy in German policy on Russia to a securitisation and politicisation of relations with Moscow.

  • Russians Adrift on the Sea of Values

    Mikhail Dmitriev on the changing values of Russian society

    von Alena Epifanova | Russia

    Russians Adrift on the Sea of Values

    „Public consciousness of Russians is deanchored from static ideas which were stabilizing attitudes, now it is like a ship without an anchor on the high seas,“ – economist Mikhail Dmitriev on his study, indicating a change in values in Russian society.

  • A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats

    Germany, the EU, and NATO Need New Political Initiatives and Military Defense Systems

    von Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling, Zoe Stanley-Lockman
    DGAPkompakt 8 (June 2019), 5 pp.

    A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats

    The range of air-based threats is expanding with considerable speed and intensity. The main reason is the proliferation of technologies and weapons systems. Germany could play a leading role in the necessary adaptation of arms control regimes and in the development of new air defense capabilities. To this end, Germany should initiate a PESCO project on short-range air defense and an air defense capability cluster within NATO.

  • Russia and the West 2028

    Forward-Looking Scenarios in Russian-European-American-Relations

    Russia

    Russia and the West 2028

    The Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Robert Bosch Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations partnered with the Robert Bosch Foundation to explore Russia-European-American dynamics in a turbulent time. In 2018, we decided in the last project phase to generate a number of scenarios – narratives of alternative futures – that can enable decision-makers to play out the potential ramifications of choices they face today.

  • Security First, Technology Second

    Putin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help

    von Andrei Soldatov | Russia, Cyber Security
    DGAPkompakt 3, 7. März 2019, 5 S.

    Security First, Technology Second

    Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.

  • Armenia Needs a New Opposition

    How the EU Can Help Institute Checks and Balances

    von Cristina Gherasimov | Armenia
    DGAPstandpunkt 6, March 6, 2019, 3 pp.

    Armenia Needs a New Opposition

    In Armenia, last year’s Velvet Revolution ended a long period of autocratic rule. On assuming the office of prime minister, former opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan acquired a constitutional authority enhanced by wide popular support and the lack of effective opposition in parliament. While this helps him implement reforms, the absence of strong checks may prove harmful in the long run. The EU should help rebuild Armenia’s checks and balances to ensure the country’s sustainable transformation.

  • „A state does not get a Silicon Valley at the press of a button”

    Jane Zavalishina about Russia’s digital economy

    von Alena Epifanova | Russia

    „A state does not get a Silicon Valley at the press of a button”

    Russia’s potential for digital innovation is enormous, talents abound and banks as well as state authorities are often more digitally adept than their Western counterparts when it comes to dealing with end customers. Nonetheless, the conditions set by the state impede the sector’s competitiveness. This also hinders much needed investments for Russian start-ups that require access to global markets.

  • Nord Stream 2: The Dead-End of Germany’s Ostpolitik

    von Stefan Meister
    Berlin Policy Journal, February 20, 2019

    The fight about the pipeline was supposed to give Germany cause to rethink its foreign-policy. Instead, Berlin is supporting a project that will hurt its credibility.

  • “You cannot stop information from being shared or disseminated”

    Andrei Soldatov on digitalization in Russia

    von Alena Epifanova | Russia, Cyber Security

    “You cannot stop information from being shared or disseminated”

    Digitalization is an innovative economic sector in Russia which showcases the country’s intellectual potential. Internet is readily available, with many Russian cities offering easier internet access than Germany cities. Russia is a network society with booming social media. At the same time, the Russian government is systematically trying to control this area. As this is not always technically feasible, Russia is intensifying its technological cooperation with China.

  • Between Old and New World Order

    Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy Rationale

    von Stefan Meister, Pavel Baev, Pavel Felgenhauer, Alexander Golts, Alexander Kolbin, Peter Pomerantsev | Russia, Security
    DGAPkompakt 19 (September 2018). 30 pp.

    Between Old and New World Order

    Political decision-making under Vladimir Putin is informed by a military-technological rationale, and military might is seen as a main tool of Russian foreign policy. Modern nuclear capabilities are key for Russia as they are regarded an effective bargaining chip that will also bring Moscow back to eye-level vis-à-vis the US. Yet, the Kremlin regards all manners of hybrid warfare – including disinformation, cyber-attacks and Russian-engineered international media coverage – as equally legitimate.

  • Risk Report Russia

    Political Risk Scenarios for Russia

    von Sarah Pagung | Russia
    Conias Risk Intelligence, Risiko Report (08/2018), 32 pp.

    Re-elected on March 18, President Vladimir Putin remains firmly in the driver seat of Russian politics. For many international investors, he stands, despite a poor democratic record, for a sufficient degree of political stability and a benevolent policy towards foreign businesses. Russia benefits from vast resources and remains the undisputed center of the post-Soviet space. Beyond the development of global commodity prices, the question of who will succeed Putin will be vital for the future of Russia.

  • A Shift in German-Russian Relations

    The Return of Pragmatism

    von Stefan Meister | Russia, International Policy/Relations
    First published as DGAPstandpunkt 19, 2018 (in German)

    A Shift in German-Russian Relations

    The meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in August provided an opportunity to normalize German-Russian relations on an operational level. Issues such as Nord Stream 2, the war in Syria, the Iran nuclear agreement, and US sanctions policy under the Trump administration demand an interest-driven policy approach on both sides. The return to pragmatism means a “de-Ukrainization” in key areas of common interests.

  • The price of success, the benefit of setbacks:

    Alternative futures of EU-Ukraine relations

    von Maria Davydchyk
    Davydchyk, M., Mehlhausen, T., Priesmeyer-Tkocz, W., 2018. The price of success, the benefit of setbacks: Alternative futures of EU-Ukraine relations. Futures 97, 35–46. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2017.06.004

    This article explores the various futures of relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. After distilling two major drivers we construct a future compass in order to conceive of four futures of relations between the EU and Ukraine.

  • Searching for a new foundation for German-Russian relations

    von Stefan Meister | Russia
    Russian International Affairs Council, May 14, 2018

    Relations between Germany and Russia have always been fundamental for (peace and stability) Europe — whether in a negative way, for example remembering the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact on the eve of the Second World War, or in a positive way, as in the management of German unification, the end of the Soviet Union and the eastern enlargement of the EU.

  • Stably Instable

    Putin’s Reelection Will Not Stop Social Change in Russia

    von Stefan Meister | Russia, Elections
    DGAPviewpoint 9, 2018, 3 pp.

    Stably Instable

    Vladimir Putin has governed Russia for eighteen years. An entire generation of young Russians has only ever experienced him at the helm of their country. Yet, it is just this generation that Putin is losing touch with as he has been seeking his power base mostly in the conservative, small-town and rural majority. Putin’s reelection will not shield his government from the social change that Russia is facing – and it is this change that the West should set its hopes on.

  • Geopolitics and Security

    A New Strategy for the South Caucasus

    von Stefan Meister
    Geopolitics and Security - A New Strategy for the South Caucasus, 2018, 305 pp., ISBN 978-9941-449-93-2

    Geopolitics and Security

    The South Caucasus is a region at the nexus of various economic, political, and energy interests. It is currently witnessing some of the most complex and dangerous events in the world today. It features weak states, direct and proxy wars, and a confluence of great power interests. It is a prism for fundamental challenges to the international system, including separatism, security, energy transit, and infrastructure.

  • Is Russia Europe’s Biggest Threat?

    Judy Dempsey asks Stefan Meister and other experts

    von Stefan Meister | Russia, European Union
    “Judy Asks,” Carnegie Europe Blog, February 21, 2018

    As part of her “Strategic Europe” blog for Carnegie Europe’s website, Judy Dempsey asked a selection of foreign and security policy experts, including the DGAP’s Stefan Meister, about Russia’s role for Europe.

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