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The Unraveling of the Shanghai “Deal”
The Unraveling of the Shanghai “Deal”US-China Trade-cum-Currency Conflict comes to Europe
by Shahin Vallée
DGAPviewpoint 21 (August 2019), 2 pp.
The trade conflict between the US and China has now clearly escalated into the currency realm. This will force Europe to respond to avert being the “variable of adjustment” for an economic conflict from which it cannot remain an innocent bystander.
Moldova’s Power Transition
Moldova’s Power TransitionA Chance for the EU to Act in Its Eastern Neighborhood
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPstandpunkt 18 (June 2019), 3 pp.
A new transfer of power has taken place in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood that raises vigilant hopes for the future of the Eastern Partnership. This is a chance for Moldova to address its democratic deficit and rebuild its international reputation after vested interests captured its state institutions. The new government, however, needs the support of EU partners. While this pro-reformist executive brings big opportunities – including for the EU – it also poses risks that need to be cautiously considered.
The Spitz to the Top
The Spitz to the TopOnly a “Spitzenkandidat” Should become President of the Next EU Commission
by Jana Puglierin, Julian Rappold
DGAPstandpunkt 17 (June 2019), 3 pp.
Now that the European elections are over, the European Parliament and the European Council are battling for the upper hand in the process to name the next president of the European Commission. While the European Parliament wants to establish the spitzenkandidat (or lead candidate) process once and for all, opposition is building in the European Council. A face-saving compromise is needed to avoid a protracted tug of war. And this simply won’t work without one of the spitzenkandidaten.
Looking beyond Sibiu
Looking beyond SibiuEU cooperation can move forward – flexibly
by Julian Rappold, Daniela Schwarzer
DGAPstandpunkt 14, May 7, 2019, 3 pp.
The European Council meeting in Sibiu on 9 May was intended to boost the European Union two weeks ahead of the European parliamentary election, and in the wake of the original March Brexit date. However, divided amongst themselves, the EU leaders are shying away from notable commitments even though citizens’ support for the EU has actually increased. The likely limited results of Sibiu reflect the current state of the EU, but do not necessarily determine its future after the election.
Rupture in Kiev
Rupture in KievUkrainians Vote for Change to Consolidate Their Democracy
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPviewpoint 11, April 24, 2019, 4 pp.
The landslide victory of Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine’s presidential runoff is a breakthrough in the post-Soviet space that rarely offers chances to political novices. The vote highlights Ukrainians’ discontent with the political establishment. It shows a new set of factors at work in shaping the polls, and civil society’s readiness to accept risk to consolidate their fragile democracy. For the European Union and Germany, the change offers an opportunity for new momentum in relations with Ukraine.
Armenia Needs a New Opposition
Armenia Needs a New OppositionHow the EU Can Help Institute Checks and Balances
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPstandpunkt 6, March 6, 2019, 3 pp.
In Armenia, last year’s Velvet Revolution ended a long period of autocratic rule. On assuming the office of prime minister, former opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan acquired a constitutional authority enhanced by wide popular support and the lack of effective opposition in parliament. While this helps him implement reforms, the absence of strong checks may prove harmful in the long run. The EU should help rebuild Armenia’s checks and balances to ensure the country’s sustainable transformation.
A Chance to Calm the Trade War
A Chance to Calm the Trade WarG20 Summit in Argentina
by Claudia Schmucker
DGAPviewpoint 21, 2018, 2 pp. First published in the Global Policy Journal (10/31/2018).
Ten years after the G20 held its first ever summit, the informal group is meeting for the first time in South America. But can the closely watched gathering calm tensions amid the escalating trade war?
A Shift in German-Russian Relations
A Shift in German-Russian RelationsThe Return of Pragmatism
by Stefan Meister
First published as DGAPstandpunkt 19, 2018 (in German)
The meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in August provided an opportunity to normalize German-Russian relations on an operational level. Issues such as Nord Stream 2, the war in Syria, the Iran nuclear agreement, and US sanctions policy under the Trump administration demand an interest-driven policy approach on both sides. The return to pragmatism means a “de-Ukrainization” in key areas of common interests.
America Is More Than Trump
America Is More Than TrumpEurope Should Defend the Iran Deal without Burning Bridges to the US
by Thomas Gomart, Robin Niblett, Daniela Schwarzer, Nathalie Tocci
DGAPviewpoint 13, 2018, 2 pp.
In a bid to salvage the Iran Nuclear Deal, European leaders this week moved to protect European companies from the possible fallout of US sanctions against Iran. The steps taken to ensure commerce with Iran – among them the activation of the 1996 blocking statute – risk further alienation from the US. However, the EU will only be able to negotiate effectively with the US over Iran if it develops its own strategy. Fighting for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is a place to start.
Orbán Reloaded
Orbán ReloadedWhat the EU and Germany Should Do Now
by Milan Nič, Péter Krekó
DGAPviewpoint 10, 2018, 4 pp.
Viktor Orbán has been re-elected as Hungarian prime minister in polls beset by fear-mongering, an unfair voting system and a divided opposition. After decrying the EU as part of a Western conspiracy against Hungary, he will now both use and abuse Brussels: He hopes to build a new Eurosceptic alliance in Brussels to increase his limited clout in the bloc and his power and maneuver space at home. The EU should step up its responses to prevent Hungary from becoming an antidemocratic model in Europe.
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