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Poland’s Parliamentary Elections and a Looming Hungarian Scenario
Poland’s Parliamentary Elections and a Looming Hungarian Scenario
by Sławomir Sierakowski
DGAPstandpunkt 28, 8 October 2019, 4 p.
Thanks to economic growth, Poland’s ruling PiS party has introduced social programs that have further bolstered its popularity. Unlike in recent European elections, the opposition is not running as a unified bloc in parliamentary elections on October 13, 2019. If PiS again wins a majority, it will take steps to cement its system of illiberal democracy. As long as he maintains good relations with Donald Trump, PiS’s leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski does not seem wary of reactions from Brussels and Berlin.
Eastern Challenges for Josep Borrell – and the EU
Eastern Challenges for Josep Borrell – and the EU
by Milan Nič, Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPstandpunkt 26 (September 2019), 3 pp.
As the European Union’s next designated HR/VP, Josep Borrell will have to deal with major global challenges and the EU’s internal travails to shape foreign policy more assertively. In particular, two flash points on the EU’s doorstep – the eastern Ukraine and Serbia-Kosovo – will be early tests of Borell’s ability to enhance the Union’s ability to project influence as a global power and help build its capacity for strategic autonomy.
ECB’s Easing Package Is a Call for European Fiscal Reform
ECB’s Easing Package Is a Call for European Fiscal Reform
by Shahin Vallée
DGAPstandpunkt 25 (September 2019), 2 pp.
Europe’s economic policy is currently being held hostage by incoherent decisions, which are not only crippling the euro area’s economy but also threatening global recovery. The ECB needs to admit that it cannot meet its mandate without fiscal support. In return, Germany needs to accept that true reform of Europe’s fiscal framework cannot take place without a real conversation about its debt brake policy, the schuldenbremse, and its balanced budget policy, the schwarze null.
Putin’s Regime on the Path to More Repression
Putin’s Regime on the Path to More RepressionAfter Russia’s Regional Elections
by András Rácz
DGAPviewpoint 24 (September 2019), 3 pp.
In the Russian regional elections on 8 September 2019, the ruling party United Russia managed to largely hold on its control over state assemblies and governorships. Even in Moscow, where United Russia was significantly weakened, there was no liberal breakthrough. But the elections did not solve any of the inherent political and social tensions—it only made them more visible. Thus, protest potential is going to remain high, which will likely cause the regime to become even more repressive.
Setting Course for the Next Five Years
Setting Course for the Next Five YearsThree Steps to Start an Effective EU Commission Presidency
by Julian Rappold
DGAPstandpunkt 23 (September 2019), 3 pp.
The designated European Commission President is busy putting together her team of Commissioners, which will face Parliamentary scrutiny at the end of October. Now is when Ursula von der Leyen is laying the basis for the success or weakness of her presidency. This task goes far beyond assigning names to portfolios.
The Unraveling of the Shanghai “Deal”
The Unraveling of the Shanghai “Deal”US-China Trade-cum-Currency Conflict comes to Europe
by Shahin Vallée
DGAPviewpoint 21 (August 2019), 2 pp.
The trade conflict between the US and China has now clearly escalated into the currency realm. This will force Europe to respond to avert being the “variable of adjustment” for an economic conflict from which it cannot remain an innocent bystander.
Moldova’s Power Transition
Moldova’s Power TransitionA Chance for the EU to Act in Its Eastern Neighborhood
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPstandpunkt 18 (June 2019), 3 pp.
A new transfer of power has taken place in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood that raises vigilant hopes for the future of the Eastern Partnership. This is a chance for Moldova to address its democratic deficit and rebuild its international reputation after vested interests captured its state institutions. The new government, however, needs the support of EU partners. While this pro-reformist executive brings big opportunities – including for the EU – it also poses risks that need to be cautiously considered.
The Spitz to the Top
The Spitz to the TopOnly a “Spitzenkandidat” Should become President of the Next EU Commission
by Jana Puglierin, Julian Rappold
DGAPstandpunkt 17 (June 2019), 3 pp.
Now that the European elections are over, the European Parliament and the European Council are battling for the upper hand in the process to name the next president of the European Commission. While the European Parliament wants to establish the spitzenkandidat (or lead candidate) process once and for all, opposition is building in the European Council. A face-saving compromise is needed to avoid a protracted tug of war. And this simply won’t work without one of the spitzenkandidaten.
Looking beyond Sibiu
Looking beyond SibiuEU cooperation can move forward – flexibly
by Julian Rappold, Daniela Schwarzer
DGAPstandpunkt 14, May 7, 2019, 3 pp.
The European Council meeting in Sibiu on 9 May was intended to boost the European Union two weeks ahead of the European parliamentary election, and in the wake of the original March Brexit date. However, divided amongst themselves, the EU leaders are shying away from notable commitments even though citizens’ support for the EU has actually increased. The likely limited results of Sibiu reflect the current state of the EU, but do not necessarily determine its future after the election.
Rupture in Kiev
Rupture in KievUkrainians Vote for Change to Consolidate Their Democracy
by Cristina Gherasimov
DGAPviewpoint 11, April 24, 2019, 4 pp.
The landslide victory of Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine’s presidential runoff is a breakthrough in the post-Soviet space that rarely offers chances to political novices. The vote highlights Ukrainians’ discontent with the political establishment. It shows a new set of factors at work in shaping the polls, and civil society’s readiness to accept risk to consolidate their fragile democracy. For the European Union and Germany, the change offers an opportunity for new momentum in relations with Ukraine.
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