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Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyThe Changing Security Environment in Space Demands New Diplomatic and Military Answers
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 14 (July 2019), 7 pp.
On the brink of being weaponized, space is becoming a military-operational environment. Proliferating anti-satellite weapons threaten space security and enable first strikes against military space assets crucial to conventional and nuclear forces. This affects the global strategic landscape and decreases crisis stability among major powers. As current arms control regimes are insufficient, Germany and NATO should push new initiatives to keep space peaceful and advance military planning should they fail.
Asymmetrical Arms Control
Asymmetrical Arms ControlHow to Account for Innovation and Diversity in European Armed Forces
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 12/2019, 5 pp.
Conventional arms control in Europe is in crisis. As it is based on a simple headcount of weapons systems, it does not reflect the qualitative changes to armed forces’ structures and assets brought about by technological innovation. It is high time to embrace asymmetrical arms control mechanisms which are a promising method to deal with the diversity of qualitative changes in European armed forces. Germany should push for such innovation within the OSCE.
The Compact Roadmap
The Compact RoadmapTowards a New Level of Professionalization in Civilian CSDP
by Carina Böttcher
DGAPkompakt 11 (June 2019), 7 pp.
EU member states agreed the Civilian CSDP Compact in late 2018 to breathe new life into EU civilian crisis management. Its 22 commitments are a response to a double challenge: a rapidly changing security environment and persistent shortfalls in the planning, deployment, and conduct of missions. Implementation will be challenging. Political momentum depends on producing tangible results early on, notably through National Implementation Plans and a workable Civilian Capability Review process.
German Leadership in Arms Control
German Leadership in Arms ControlThree Pillars to Achieve More Realism
by Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 10 (June 2019), 5 pp.
Arms control is traditionally at the core of Germany’s cooperative security approach. It is therefore a natural leader for a new Western arms control policy. But Germany must overcome the Cold War approach that no longer suits today’s security environment. A new approach should build on three pillars: security, military, and alliance realism. While such a change entails risk and uncertainty for German decision-makers, the price of upholding existing outdated arms control architectures is already higher.
A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats
A New Dimension of Air-Based ThreatsGermany, the EU, and NATO Need New Political Initiatives and Military Defense Systems
by Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling, Zoe Stanley-Lockman
DGAPkompakt 8 (June 2019), 5 pp.
The range of air-based threats is expanding with considerable speed and intensity. The main reason is the proliferation of technologies and weapons systems. Germany could play a leading role in the necessary adaptation of arms control regimes and in the development of new air defense capabilities. To this end, Germany should initiate a PESCO project on short-range air defense and an air defense capability cluster within NATO.
Point of No Return
Point of No ReturnViktor Orbán’s Divorce from the EPP
by Milan Nič, András Rácz
DGAPkompakt 7 (May 2019), 4 pp.
A few weeks after the European People’s Party (EPP) suspended the membership of Hungary’s ruling populist party, Fidesz, it looks unlikely that their relationship could be repaired. Seeing his leverage decreasing, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been paving the way for divorce. The EPP leaders seem to have made up their minds as well. A re-arrangement of the European party system is already taking shape ahead of the upcoming European elections (23–26 May 2019), not only afterwards.
Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyHypersonic Weapon Systems Will Decrease Global Strategic Stability – and Current Control Regimes Won’t Do
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 4 (March 2019), 6 pp.
Hypersonic weapon systems will alter the global strategic landscape. They will compress reaction times, increase ambiguity of military actions, and may lead to the weaponization of space. With no effective defenses against such systems in sight, all actors will face less stability – regardless of whether or not they field hypersonic weapon systems themselves. Germany and Europe should explore options to mitigate these risks through arms control, export controls, and confidence-building measures.
Security First, Technology Second
Security First, Technology SecondPutin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help
by Andrei Soldatov
DGAPkompakt 3, 7. März 2019, 5 S.
Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms ControlEurope’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO
by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß
DGAPkompakt 2 (February 2019), 4 pp.
In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.
Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans
Regional Cooperation in the Western BalkansOptions for the Interplay of Neighborly Relations and EU Accession up to 2025
by Cornelius Adebahr, Theresia Töglhofer, Sarah Wohlfeld, Natasha Wunsch
DGAPkompakt 30 (December 2018), 21 pp.
Under the European Commission’s 2018 Western Balkan strategy, candidate countries from the region must resolve bilateral disputes before joining the EU. As it wants to avoid importing conflicts, the EU puts the onus to ensure good neighborly relations onto the region itself. International researchers from this year’s TRAIN program developed scenarios for the region. They range from increasing regional cooperation to the possible fallout from failed conflict resolution or an EU fatigue toward the region.
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