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Point of No Return
Point of No ReturnViktor Orbán’s Divorce from the EPP
by Milan Nič, András Rácz
DGAPkompakt 7 (May 2019), 4 pp.
A few weeks after the European People’s Party (EPP) suspended the membership of Hungary’s ruling populist party, Fidesz, it looks unlikely that their relationship could be repaired. Seeing his leverage decreasing, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been paving the way for divorce. The EPP leaders seem to have made up their minds as well. A re-arrangement of the European party system is already taking shape ahead of the upcoming European elections (23–26 May 2019), not only afterwards.
Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyHypersonic Weapon Systems Will Decrease Global Strategic Stability – and Current Control Regimes Won’t Do
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 4 (March 2019), 6 pp.
Hypersonic weapon systems will alter the global strategic landscape. They will compress reaction times, increase ambiguity of military actions, and may lead to the weaponization of space. With no effective defenses against such systems in sight, all actors will face less stability – regardless of whether or not they field hypersonic weapon systems themselves. Germany and Europe should explore options to mitigate these risks through arms control, export controls, and confidence-building measures.
Security First, Technology Second
Security First, Technology SecondPutin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help
by Andrei Soldatov
DGAPkompakt 3, 7. März 2019, 5 S.
Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms ControlEurope’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO
by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß
DGAPkompakt 2 (February 2019), 4 pp.
In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.
Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans
Regional Cooperation in the Western BalkansOptions for the Interplay of Neighborly Relations and EU Accession up to 2025
by Cornelius Adebahr, Theresia Töglhofer, Sarah Wohlfeld, Natasha Wunsch
DGAPkompakt 30 (December 2018), 21 pp.
Under the European Commission’s 2018 Western Balkan strategy, candidate countries from the region must resolve bilateral disputes before joining the EU. As it wants to avoid importing conflicts, the EU puts the onus to ensure good neighborly relations onto the region itself. International researchers from this year’s TRAIN program developed scenarios for the region. They range from increasing regional cooperation to the possible fallout from failed conflict resolution or an EU fatigue toward the region.
Hurdle Race with a Slow Start
Hurdle Race with a Slow StartPublic Administration Reform in Ukraine
by Iryna Solonenko
DGAPkompakt 25 (October 2018), 6 pp.
Launched in 2015 after the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine’s public administration reform is a serious attempt to overhaul the existing system based on recognized European principles. However, its implementation has been patchy due to various obstacles including poor leadership and resistance to change. To tackle these drawbacks, it is important to establish a reform task force led by the prime minster and improve legislation. Support from Germany and Europe will also be decisive for the reform’s success.
Responsible Defense Policy
Responsible Defense PolicyThis Autumn, Germany Should Pave Its Way out of the 46 Billion Defense Investment Gap
by Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt Nr. 23 (October 2018), 6 pp.
By the close of the ongoing budget negotiations in November 2018, Germany will have to decide on the future of its armed forces’ long-term recovery. To close the 46 billion euro gap, the defense budget and financial planning would need to be increased by approximately four billion euros each year until 2024. While endorsing their firm commitments to NATO and the EU, parliament and government have so far failed to agree on a budget fit enough to deliver on those tasks they have assigned to the Bundeswehr.
The Relevance of a Strong Civilian CSDP
The Relevance of a Strong Civilian CSDPHow EU Member States Can Shape the Civilian Crisis Management Agenda 2018 and Beyond
by Carina Böttcher
DGAPkompakt 21 (October 2018), 5 pp.
While member states recognize the value of the civilian Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), a strategic EU vision is lacking. In the face of current and future security risks, the EU requires the capacities to launch civilian missions and to manage major crises in its vicinity. To guide the implementation of the Civilian Compact from 2019 on, the EU should set quantitative headline goals and adopt a strategic planning approach, while member states need to create favorable national legislations.
Between Old and New World Order
Between Old and New World OrderRussia’s Foreign and Security Policy Rationale
by Stefan Meister, Pavel Baev, Pavel Felgenhauer, Alexander Golts, Alexander Kolbin, Peter Pomerantsev
DGAPkompakt 19 (September 2018). 30 pp.
Political decision-making under Vladimir Putin is informed by a military-technological rationale, and military might is seen as a main tool of Russian foreign policy. Modern nuclear capabilities are key for Russia as they are regarded an effective bargaining chip that will also bring Moscow back to eye-level vis-à-vis the US. Yet, the Kremlin regards all manners of hybrid warfare – including disinformation, cyber-attacks and Russian-engineered international media coverage – as equally legitimate.
EU Civilian Crisis Management
EU Civilian Crisis ManagementHow the Union Can Live up to Its Ambitions – or Stumble into Irrelevance
by Hannah Neumann, Carina Böttcher, Christian Mölling, Marie Wolf
DGAPkompakt 15 (July 2018), 6 pp.
Europe’s security situation has drastically changed. Current challenges can neither be tackled by member states individually, nor by military means alone. A new ambitious process at EU level gives member states the opportunity to improve the EU’s civilian crisis management and answer central questions. Most importantly though, member states need to increase their financial and personal commitments, if they want to prevent this trademark of European foreign policy from drifting into irrelevance.
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