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Germany’s Preliminary 5G Decision
Germany’s Preliminary 5G DecisionLimiting Damage and Learning Lessons
by Kaan Sahin, Didi Kirsten Tatlow
DGAPkompakt 21 (November 2019), 6 pp.
Despite the security concerns of the US, EU, and Australia, Germany plans not to exclude any telecom equipment vendors, including Chinese companies such as Huawei, from its 5G network. This stance reflects a narrow view of the issue that prioritizes short-term economic interests and fails to uphold national security and democratic values. Widespread criticism, including from within the government, shows that political decision-makers in Germany need a more sophisticated, forward-looking approach to 5G.
The First Year of the Compact
The First Year of the CompactHow the Review Process Can Make Civilian CSDP More Capable
by Carina Böttcher
DGAPkompakt 20 (October 2019), 5 pp.
The EU needs more and better capabilities in civilian crisis management to fulfill its level of ambition and to more effectively contribute to security and peace in its wider neighborhood. In this, the Civilian CSDP Compact plays an important role. It has introduced an annual review process to take stock of implementation and identify ­capability shortfalls. This review process has great potential to improve the way the EU and its member states plan and develop capabilities for missions.
Donbas Peace Talks 2.0
Donbas Peace Talks 2.0Russia’s Objectives and Ukraine’s Limits
by Cristina Gherasimov, András Rácz
DGAPkompakt 18 (October 2019), 6 pp.
On October 1, 2019, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed to meet Russia’s conditions for holding peace talks already this autumn. Moscow’s readiness to play, however, should not be mistaken for willingness to solve the conflict. So far, the Kremlin has not made any concessions in Eastern Ukraine that would be irreversible; consequently, it seems to only be testing Zelenskiy’s limits. Both Zelenskiy and the EU need to be cautious not to reward easy-to-reverse steps with major, strategic benefits.
Will Ships be Sent?
Will Ships be Sent?Germany’s Options for Naval Intervention in the Strait of Hormuz
by Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, Carlo Masala
DGAPkompakt 15 (August 2019), 11 pp. (in German)
Iran is endangering the right to free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Together with EU partners, Germany should develop a naval mission and, if necessary, lead it. Europe has sufficient military capabilities for an observer or protective mission. Either way, its mission should be closely coordinated with the maritime operation planned by the US, but distinct enough from it to avoid being drawn into a war.
Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyThe Changing Security Environment in Space Demands New Diplomatic and Military Answers
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 14 (July 2019), 7 pp.
On the brink of being weaponized, space is becoming a military-operational environment. Proliferating anti-satellite weapons threaten space security and enable first strikes against military space assets crucial to conventional and nuclear forces. This affects the global strategic landscape and decreases crisis stability among major powers. As current arms control regimes are insufficient, Germany and NATO should push new initiatives to keep space peaceful and advance military planning should they fail.
Asymmetrical Arms Control
Asymmetrical Arms ControlHow to Account for Innovation and Diversity in European Armed Forces
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 12 (June 2019), 5 pp.
Conventional arms control in Europe is in crisis. As it is based on a simple headcount of weapons systems, it does not reflect the qualitative changes to armed forces’ structures and assets brought about by technological innovation. It is high time to embrace asymmetrical arms control mechanisms which are a promising method to deal with the diversity of qualitative changes in European armed forces. Germany should push for such innovation within the OSCE.
The Compact Roadmap
The Compact RoadmapTowards a New Level of Professionalization in Civilian CSDP
by Carina Böttcher
DGAPkompakt 11 (June 2019), 7 pp.
EU member states agreed the Civilian CSDP Compact in late 2018 to breathe new life into EU civilian crisis management. Its 22 commitments are a response to a double challenge: a rapidly changing security environment and persistent shortfalls in the planning, deployment, and conduct of missions. Implementation will be challenging. Political momentum depends on producing tangible results early on, notably through National Implementation Plans and a workable Civilian Capability Review process.
German Leadership in Arms Control
German Leadership in Arms ControlThree Pillars to Achieve More Realism
by Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 10 (June 2019), 5 pp.
Arms control is traditionally at the core of Germany’s cooperative security approach. It is therefore a natural leader for a new Western arms control policy. But Germany must overcome the Cold War approach that no longer suits today’s security environment. A new approach should build on three pillars: security, military, and alliance realism. While such a change entails risk and uncertainty for German decision-makers, the price of upholding existing outdated arms control architectures is already higher.
A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats
A New Dimension of Air-Based ThreatsGermany, the EU, and NATO Need New Political Initiatives and Military Defense Systems
by Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling, Zoe Stanley-Lockman
DGAPkompakt 8 (June 2019), 5 pp.
The range of air-based threats is expanding with considerable speed and intensity. The main reason is the proliferation of technologies and weapons systems. Germany could play a leading role in the necessary adaptation of arms control regimes and in the development of new air defense capabilities. To this end, Germany should initiate a PESCO project on short-range air defense and an air defense capability cluster within NATO.
Point of No Return
Point of No ReturnViktor Orbán’s Divorce from the EPP
by Milan Nič, András Rácz
DGAPkompakt 7 (May 2019), 4 pp.
A few weeks after the European People’s Party (EPP) suspended the membership of Hungary’s ruling populist party, Fidesz, it looks unlikely that their relationship could be repaired. Seeing his leverage decreasing, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been paving the way for divorce. The EPP leaders seem to have made up their minds as well. A re-arrangement of the European party system is already taking shape ahead of the upcoming European elections (23–26 May 2019), not only afterwards.
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