Program Publications

Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyThe Changing Security Environment in Space Demands New Diplomatic and Military Answers
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 14 (July 2019), 7 pp.
On the brink of being weaponized, space is becoming a military-operational environment. Proliferating anti-satellite weapons threaten space security and enable first strikes against military space assets crucial to conventional and nuclear forces. This affects the global strategic landscape and decreases crisis stability among major powers. As current arms control regimes are insufficient, Germany and NATO should push new initiatives to keep space peaceful and advance military planning should they fail.
Divided in Diversity
Divided in DiversityOvercoming Europe’s Incoherence in National Approaches to Civilian CSDP
by Carina Böttcher, Marie Wolf
DGAPanalyse 3, June 2019, 18 p.
Despite 15 years of mission practice, EU member states are often reluctant to commit considerable resources to civilian CSDP. One reason for this is the fact that EU member states diverge considerably on the role and strategic relevance they attribute to civilian crisis management in general, and civilian CSDP specifically. This divergence hampers a common understanding on the future direction of civilian CSDP, which is direly needed to strengthen it through the Civilian CSDP Compact.
Asymmetrical Arms Control
Asymmetrical Arms ControlHow to Account for Innovation and Diversity in European Armed Forces
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 12/2019, 5 pp.
Conventional arms control in Europe is in crisis. As it is based on a simple headcount of weapons systems, it does not reflect the qualitative changes to armed forces’ structures and assets brought about by technological innovation. It is high time to embrace asymmetrical arms control mechanisms which are a promising method to deal with the diversity of qualitative changes in European armed forces. Germany should push for such innovation within the OSCE.
The Compact Roadmap
The Compact RoadmapTowards a New Level of Professionalization in Civilian CSDP
by Carina Böttcher
DGAPkompakt 11 (June 2019), 7 pp.
EU member states agreed the Civilian CSDP Compact in late 2018 to breathe new life into EU civilian crisis management. Its 22 commitments are a response to a double challenge: a rapidly changing security environment and persistent shortfalls in the planning, deployment, and conduct of missions. Implementation will be challenging. Political momentum depends on producing tangible results early on, notably through National Implementation Plans and a workable Civilian Capability Review process.
German Leadership in Arms Control
German Leadership in Arms ControlThree Pillars to Achieve More Realism
by Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 10 (June 2019), 5 pp.
Arms control is traditionally at the core of Germany’s cooperative security approach. It is therefore a natural leader for a new Western arms control policy. But Germany must overcome the Cold War approach that no longer suits today’s security environment. A new approach should build on three pillars: security, military, and alliance realism. While such a change entails risk and uncertainty for German decision-makers, the price of upholding existing outdated arms control architectures is already higher.
A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats
A New Dimension of Air-Based ThreatsGermany, the EU, and NATO Need New Political Initiatives and Military Defense Systems
by Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling, Zoe Stanley-Lockman
DGAPkompakt 8 (June 2019), 5 pp.
The range of air-based threats is expanding with considerable speed and intensity. The main reason is the proliferation of technologies and weapons systems. Germany could play a leading role in the necessary adaptation of arms control regimes and in the development of new air defense capabilities. To this end, Germany should initiate a PESCO project on short-range air defense and an air defense capability cluster within NATO.
International Tour d’Horizon of Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism
by Sofia Koller
Technology and Strategy
Technology and StrategyHypersonic Weapon Systems Will Decrease Global Strategic Stability – and Current Control Regimes Won’t Do
by Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt 4 (March 2019), 6 pp.
Hypersonic weapon systems will alter the global strategic landscape. They will compress reaction times, increase ambiguity of military actions, and may lead to the weaponization of space. With no effective defenses against such systems in sight, all actors will face less stability – regardless of whether or not they field hypersonic weapon systems themselves. Germany and Europe should explore options to mitigate these risks through arms control, export controls, and confidence-building measures.
Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms ControlEurope’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO
by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß
DGAPkompakt 2 (February 2019), 4 pp.
In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.
Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management Forward
Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management ForwardMore Capable, More Flexible, More Responsive
by
DGAPreport, January 2019, 31 pp.
The security environment of the European Union (EU) has changed dramatically over the past decade. New complex conflicts have erupted in the EU’s neighborhood, including Ukraine, Syria, Libya and Yemen, while long-standing conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan persist. Moreover, the rule-based world order has been increasingly fragmenting over the last years, and is facing a rise of interest-based foreign policy resting on power and deterrence.
Protecting Europe
Protecting EuropeMeeting the EU’s military level of ambition in the context of Brexit
by Douglas Barrie, Ben Barry, Henry Boyd, Marie-Louise Chagnaud, Nick Childs, Bastian Giegerich, Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz
IISS/DGAP Study, November 28th 2018, 44 p.
The ability of the European Union to act in defense, today and in the future, is an important reference point in the discussion relating to strategic autonomy and to the impact of the British exit from the Union (Brexit). The EU has set itself a military level of ambition. This study assesses to what extent the EU is able to fulfil this level of ambition, today and with an outlook towards a 2030 horizon.
Shaping the Future of Civilian Crisis Management
by Carina Böttcher, Marie Wolf
peacelab.blog, 28.11.2018
Almost unnoticed by the wider public, the EU has taken a landmark decision to make its civilian crisis management more capable, flexible and responsive. However, important commitments in the “Civilian CSDP Compact” remain vague. As a strong supporter of civilian CSDP, Germany should push for further ambitious steps to be made concrete.
Responsible Defense Policy
Responsible Defense PolicyThis Autumn, Germany Should Pave Its Way out of the 46 Billion Defense Investment Gap
by Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz
DGAPkompakt Nr. 23 (October 2018), 6 pp.
By the close of the ongoing budget negotiations in November 2018, Germany will have to decide on the future of its armed forces’ long-term recovery. To close the 46 billion euro gap, the defense budget and financial planning would need to be increased by approximately four billion euros each year until 2024. While endorsing their firm commitments to NATO and the EU, parliament and government have so far failed to agree on a budget fit enough to deliver on those tasks they have assigned to the Bundeswehr.
The Relevance of a Strong Civilian CSDP
The Relevance of a Strong Civilian CSDPHow EU Member States Can Shape the Civilian Crisis Management Agenda 2018 and Beyond
by Carina Böttcher
DGAPkompakt 21 (October 2018), 5 pp.
While member states recognize the value of the civilian Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), a strategic EU vision is lacking. In the face of current and future security risks, the EU requires the capacities to launch civilian missions and to manage major crises in its vicinity. To guide the implementation of the Civilian Compact from 2019 on, the EU should set quantitative headline goals and adopt a strategic planning approach, while member states need to create favorable national legislations.
EU Civilian Crisis Management
EU Civilian Crisis ManagementHow the Union Can Live up to Its Ambitions – or Stumble into Irrelevance
by Hannah Neumann, Carina Böttcher, Christian Mölling, Marie Wolf
DGAPkompakt 15 (July 2018), 6 pp.
Europe’s security situation has drastically changed. Current challenges can neither be tackled by member states individually, nor by military means alone. A new ambitious process at EU level gives member states the opportunity to improve the EU’s civilian crisis management and answer central questions. Most importantly though, member states need to increase their financial and personal commitments, if they want to prevent this trademark of European foreign policy from drifting into irrelevance.
The United Kingdom’s Contribution to European Security and Defence
by Christian Mölling, Bastian Giegerich
First published as Research Paper on the Military Balance Blog: Posts from the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme, February 2018, 16 pp.
Could defence and security be positive chapters in the Brexit story? Nobody wins if European common security is compromised, argue Bastian Giegerich and Christian Mölling in a new research paper. An unconditional commitment to the security of their citizens should inspire a serious conversation about how the remaining EU member states and the UK can work together.
France Moves From EU Defense to European Defense
France Moves From EU Defense to European DefenseWhile the EU is celebrating PESCO, Paris is preparing for closer defense cooperation outside the union
by Claudia Major, Christian Mölling
DGAPviewpoint 16, 2017, 2 pages
Two parallel developments are currently taking place in European defense. One is the highly publicised expectation that the tiny Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) will transform into a comprehensive and powerful EU defense project. The second development is receiving far less attention. Paris is launching defense cooperation initiatives outside the EU format, thus moving from an EU-focused to a European-oriented defense approach.
Pragmatic and European
Pragmatic and EuropeanFrance sets new goals for a European defence policy
by Claudia Major, Christian Mölling
DGAPviewpoint 14, October 19, 2017, 3 p.
With his Revue Stratégique, President Macron has given France’s defence policy a new direction. Instead of concentrating on the institutional framework of a European Union defence policy, Paris has placed pragmatic solutions and Europe’s capacity to take action into the forefront. This has consequences for both Germany and Europe: Berlin should give a speedy and constructive answer to Paris.
How Germany Should Change Its Approach to Arms Control
by Claudia Major, Christian Mölling
Carnegie Europe, Strategic Europe Blog, September 7, 2017
The old habits of Cold-War arms control no longer suit today’s security environment. It is time for Germany to devise a new strategy. Berlin has spearheaded new initiatives for conventional arms control, the most prominent being the 2016 Steinmeier Initiative, yet success has thus far been limited.
Foreign Policy and the Next German Government
Foreign Policy and the Next German GovernmentExperts from the German Council on Foreign Relations offer case studies
by Josef Braml, Claire Demesmay, Dina Fakoussa, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, Wilfried Jilge, Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid, Stefan Meister, Christian Mölling, Jana Puglierin, Henning Riecke, Claudia Schmucker, Daniela Schwarzer, Svenja Sinjen, Sebastian Sons, Sarah Wohlfeld
DGAPkompakt 7, Summer 2017, 42 pp.
A new German government will take office after the elections on September 24, 2017. DGAP experts outline in 12 separate areas the foreign policy goals Germany should pursue (and with which partners).
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