Program Publications

What to Expect – and Not Expect – at the Upcoming G7 Summit in Biarritz
by Claudia Schmucker
Fünf Fragen, 21. August 2019
French President Emmanuel Macron hosts the 45th G7 summit in Biarritz on August 24-26, 2019. The “Group of 7” is an important informal meeting of seven large industrial countries, including France, the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. The forum addresses global challenges such as trade, foreign policy, and climate change. Claudia Schmucker explains why the issues of climate and trade may hamper a joint final communiqué.
Trade at the Time of Protectionism: Why the G20 Can Help
by Claudia Schmucker
Dossier of ISPI, 26. Juni 2019
International trade is facing many risks, according to the WTO trade forecast of September 2018. Among these are rising trade tensions and global protectionism, as well as increased financial volatility as developed economies tighten their monetary policy. Consequently, the WTO downgraded world merchandise trade growth to 3.9% (2018) and 3.7% (2019) respectively.
Making America Great Again versus Made in China
Making America Great Again versus Made in ChinaThe US Geo-Economic Rivalry with China
by Claudia Schmucker, Stormy-Annika Mildner
DGAPanalysis 2, 2019, 60 pp.
The trade conflict between the United States and China is a severe threat to the world economy. While the debate over the effectiveness of tariffs is at a steady boil in the United States, the EU is opposed to tariffs as a means for dealing with China. Although serious issues with China must be addressed – such as dumping and subsidization – tariffs will make the United States neither more competitive nor secure.
A Chance to Calm the Trade War
A Chance to Calm the Trade WarG20 Summit in Argentina
by Claudia Schmucker
DGAPviewpoint 21, 2018, 2 pp. First published in the Global Policy Journal (10/31/2018).
Ten years after the G20 held its first ever summit, the informal group is meeting for the first time in South America. But can the closely watched gathering calm tensions amid the escalating trade war?
Bye-Bye America, Konnichiwa Japan
Bye-Bye America, Konnichiwa JapanChancellor Merkel: The leading defender against Trump’s mercantilist trade
by Claudia Schmucker
Handelsblatt Global, July 13, 2015 (posted with kind permission.)
Given Donald Trump's insistence on "America First," Germany and Europe must deepen other trading relationships, from Asia to Latin America and down under, write Axel Berger and Claudia Schmucker in Handelsblatt Global.
Dark clouds over free trade in G20
by Claudia Schmucker
First published by Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, 4 April 2017
President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric has eroded support for the commitments that leaders made at previous G20 summits regarding trade: rejecting protectionism and strengthening the multilateral trading system. What implications does this have for global trade? Will the more moderate voices in the administration get heard?
First They Came for the TPP
First They Came for the TPPPresident-elect Donald Trump has suggested alarming changes to American trade policy
by Claudia Schmucker, Rachel Herp-Tausendfreund
It’s still too early to say which of American President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promises will actually become policy – but with TPP, TTIP, China, and NAFTA all in the cross hairs, significant change is almost certain. Here’s how a few scenarios on the future of trade might play out.
Brexit changes the EU’s trade dynamics: don’t expect progress
by Claudia Schmucker
Europe's World, Autumn 2016
Once Britain leaves the European Union, there will be consequences for the EU as a trading power. Britain was, in 2015, the world’s fifth-largest economy and Europe’s second-largest. It was tenth-biggest exporter of merchandise, and second-biggest of commercial services.
How to Remain Relevant? Focus on International Issues!
How to Remain Relevant? Focus on International Issues!The G20 and its contribution to growth and global governance
by Claudia Schmucker
Published June 1, 2015 by the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Johns Hopkins University.
The G20 has developed from a successful crisis committee into a more broadly defined steering committee and agenda-setter. The recent Australian and current Turkish presidencies have refocused the agenda again on growth issues. But, in the G20’s informal context, long-standing disputes on how to achieve growth and a focus on domestic reform commitments have made progress on this issue very difficult. The G20 should resharpen its focus on international issues, where it can add value to the growth debate.
Germany’s G7 Presidency
Germany’s G7 PresidencyPreserving the significance of the G7 means getting results based on shared values
by Claudia Schmucker, Kseniya Dziatlouskaya
DGAPkompakt 6, May 27, 2015, 4 pp. (in German)
The G7 is often criticized for taking up topics that should be handled by the G20 and other international organizations. When it convenes at Schloss Elmau June 7–8, it should refocus attention on its role as an informal forum based on common values. The initiative to promote decent work through sustainable supply chains, organized during Germany’s presidency, offers an excellent opportunity to do this. Germany hopes members will adopt its charta for promoting sustainable business. (In German)
TTIP: Winning Back Trust
TTIP: Winning Back TrustThe EU Commission should take concrete steps to address the public’s concerns
by Claudia Schmucker
DGAPstandpunkt 3 (March 2, 2015), 3 pp.
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, if signed, would create the world’s largest economic zone. But its supporters face a credibility problem: ever more Europeans, especially Germans, see in TTIP a threat to their way of life, and to democracy – a “secret treaty” that protects corporate interests while undermining high European standards for the environment, health and consumer protection. Here are five issues the EU Commission and German government must address to win back public trust.
TTIP: A Chance for Europe
TTIP: A Chance for EuropeThe criticism on TTIP is widespread but is it justified? Explanations of central issues
by Johanna Körnig, Claudia Schmucker
Five Questions, May 22, 2014
The public debate on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), currently under negotiation, is heated. Many are publicly expressing their doubts, fears, and mistrust, but only few are voicing their support. Here Johanna Körnig and Claudia Schmucker spotlight some of the controversies, explain the importance of such a trade agreement, and clear up misconceptions.
Reforming the G20
Reforming the G20The “Think 20 Network” makes recommendations for the 2014 G20 summit in Australia
by Katharina Gnath, Claudia Schmucker
Think20 Papers 2014, pp. 43-48
As the main international forum for economic coordination, the G20 is expected to contribute substantially to global economic stability. At its heart is the Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth, by which the G20 countries have agreed to coordinate their economic policies ever more closely. Katharina Gnath and Claudia Schmucker put forward recommendations for improving monitoring in their Think20 Paper, “Strengthening the Peer Review of the G20 Mutual Assessment Process.”
The G-20 Five Years On: Focus on the Core Tasks!
The G-20 Five Years On: Focus on the Core Tasks!For the group to stay relevant, it must emphasize its role as a forum for dialogue and an agenda setter
by Claudia Schmucker, Katharina Gnath
DGAPkompakt 5, September 10, 2013, 7 pp.
When the G-20 heads of state gather for their annual photo op, the group risks becoming peripheral if too many more issues are piled onto the agenda. But even after the financial crisis, the G-20 remains important. Only it can offer a flexible, informal forum for industrial and emerging countries. At the St. Petersburg summit it can prove its prominent role in the global financial system, but for this to work, the agenda needs to be streamlined and kept free of individual interests.
Investing Our Way Out of the Crisis?
Investing Our Way Out of the Crisis?The debate over how public investment banks in Europe can promote growth
by Katharina Ehrhart, Claudia Schmucker
DGAPkompakt 4, September 9, 2013, 6 pp.
The controversy over fiscal multipliers has sparked a new debate on the negative effects of austerity measures and a discussion of the need for more public spending in Europe. In this context, the idea of increased investment financing through public investment banks has gained momentum. The authors see a strong role for such banks: The European Investment Bank, they say, is well suited to fill the existing investment gap through favorable loans, particularly to small & medium sized enterprises.
Transatlantic Renaissance?
Transatlantic Renaissance?German-American Relations in Obama’s Second Term
by Stormy-Annika Mildner, Henning Riecke, Claudia Schmucker
Institut français des relations internationales, Note du Cerfa 104, July 25, 2013, 32 pages
President Obama recently characterized the relationship between his country and Europe as “the cornerstone of our freedom and of our security.” This fits well with current efforts by Brussels and Washington to create the largest free-trade zone in the world. In terms of security policy, however, working together is a good deal more difficult. Points of contention will likely proliferate, from military capability to the war on terror to Internet surveillance. (Cerfa report in French and German.)
A Trade Deal Worth Making
A Trade Deal Worth MakingAn EU-U.S. pact would deliver huge economic benefits for both sides
by Stormy-Annika Mildner, Claudia Schmucker
Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2013
In a joint statement, U.S. President Barack Obama, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso agreed to launch negotiations on a trans-Atlantic free-trade agreement as soon as possible.
Germany, the IMF, and Aid for Greece
Germany, the IMF, and Aid for GreeceThe latest agreement is only an interim solution—another debt haircut appears unavoidable
by Claudia Schmucker
Five Questions, November 29, 2012
Even public creditors will have to waive part of their outstanding payments. Otherwise, the target that eurozone finance ministers and the IMF have now agreed to—a lowering of Greece’s public debt to 124 percent of GDP by 2020—will not be attainable, says DGAP economic expert Claudia Schmucker. But the German federal government will avoid an unpopular debt write-off before the 2013 federal elections.
G20, IMF and WTO in Turbulent Times
G20, IMF and WTO in Turbulent TimesLegitimacy and Effectiveness Put to the Test
by Katharina Gnath, Claudia Schmucker, Stormy-Annika Mildner
SWP Research Paper 2012/RP 10, August 2012, 37 Pages
The global economic and financial crisis made clear how important it is to have an effective system of international economic governance. The G20 took a key role in the management of the crisis, however, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) were also important. How well did these institutions deal with the crisis?
Lots of Talk, Little Action?
Lots of Talk, Little Action?Chances and Impediments for a New EU-U.S. Trade Agenda
by Claudia Schmucker
AICGS Issue Brief 41, 6 December 2011, 8 pages
The latest meeting of the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC) at the end of November brought some progress, but the transatlantic partnership still lacks a vision. The abolition of all tariffs could give new momentum to economic relations between the EU and the United States. Both sides should also support a "Doha light" agreement at the World Trade Organization's minister conference this December in order to restore credibility to the WTO.
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