Shaking Up the 2019 European Election
Shaking Up the 2019 European Election

Macron, Salvini, Orbán, and the Fate of the European Party System

by Julie Hamann, Milan Nič, Jana Puglierin | Elections

More fragmented than ever, Europe is at a crossroads, making the 2019 European Parliament election an immensely political event. Stakes are high for Emmanuel Macron, Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orbán, all of whom could shake up the balance of power in the EP. Macron has lost much of his initial vigor, and the disruptive potential of Salvini and Orbán is significant. If played well, their combined power could send shock waves across all European institutions.

Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms Control

Europe’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO

by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß | Arms Control and WMD

In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.

Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management Forward
Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management Forward

More Capable, More Flexible, More Responsive

Security

The security environment of the European Union (EU) has changed dramatically over the past decade. New complex conflicts have erupted in the EU’s neighborhood, including Ukraine, Syria, Libya and Yemen, while long-standing conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan persist. Moreover, the rule-based world order has been increasingly fragmenting over the last years, and is facing a rise of interest-based foreign policy resting on power and deterrence.

“You cannot stop information from being shared or disseminated”
“You cannot stop information from being shared or disseminated”

Andrei Soldatov on digitalization in Russia

by Alena Epifanova | Russia, Cyber Security

Digitalization is an innovative economic sector in Russia which showcases the country’s intellectual potential. Internet is readily available, with many Russian cities offering easier internet access than Germany cities. Russia is a network society with booming social media. At the same time, the Russian government is systematically trying to control this area. As this is not always technically feasible, Russia is intensifying its technological cooperation with China.

Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans
Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans

Options for the Interplay of Neighborly Relations and EU Accession up to 2025

by Cornelius Adebahr, Theresia Töglhofer, Sarah Wohlfeld, Natasha Wunsch | Balkans, European Union

Under the European Commission’s 2018 Western Balkan strategy, candidate countries from the region must resolve bilateral disputes before joining the EU. As it wants to avoid importing conflicts, the EU puts the onus to ensure good neighborly relations onto the region itself. International researchers from this year’s TRAIN program developed scenarios for the region. They range from increasing regional cooperation to the possible fallout from failed conflict resolution or an EU fatigue toward the region.

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