Deterrence and Arms Control
Deterrence and Arms Control

Europe’s Security without the INF Treaty: Political and Strategic Options for Germany and NATO

by Christian Mölling, Heinrich Brauß | Arms Control and WMD

In response to Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US will withdraw from the accord. As a result, Europe loses a central pillar of its security. Russia’s threat potential rises due to its intermediate-range missiles. They could split NATO into two zones of security and lead Moscow to assume it holds escalation dominance. Germany and NATO should review their defense policy options. NATO’s unity and credible deterrence, complemented by dialogue with Moscow, are key.

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Analysis

Shaking Up the 2019 European Election
Shaking Up the 2019 European Election

Macron, Salvini, Orbán, and the Fate of the European Party System

by Julie Hamann, Milan Nič, Jana Puglierin | European Union, Elections

More fragmented than ever, Europe is at a crossroads, making the 2019 European Parliament election an immensely political event. Stakes are high for Emmanuel Macron, Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orbán, all of whom could shake up the balance of power in the EP. Macron has lost much of his initial vigor, and the disruptive potential of Salvini and Orbán is significant. If played well, their combined power could send shock waves across all European institutions.

Conference Report

Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management Forward
Moving EU Civilian Crisis Management Forward

More Capable, More Flexible, More Responsive

European Union, Security

The security environment of the European Union (EU) has changed dramatically over the past decade. New complex conflicts have erupted in the EU’s neighborhood, including Ukraine, Syria, Libya and Yemen, while long-standing conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan persist. Moreover, the rule-based world order has been increasingly fragmenting over the last years, and is facing a rise of interest-based foreign policy resting on power and deterrence.

Scenarios

Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans
Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans

Options for the Interplay of Neighborly Relations and EU Accession up to 2025

by Cornelius Adebahr, Theresia Töglhofer, Sarah Wohlfeld, Natasha Wunsch | Balkans, European Union

Under the European Commission’s 2018 Western Balkan strategy, candidate countries from the region must resolve bilateral disputes before joining the EU. As it wants to avoid importing conflicts, the EU puts the onus to ensure good neighborly relations onto the region itself. International researchers from this year’s TRAIN program developed scenarios for the region. They range from increasing regional cooperation to the possible fallout from failed conflict resolution or an EU fatigue toward the region.

Analysis

Between Old and New World Order
Between Old and New World Order

Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy Rationale

by Stefan Meister, Pavel Baev, Pavel Felgenhauer, Alexander Golts, Alexander Kolbin, Peter Pomerantsev | Russia, Security

Political decision-making under Vladimir Putin is informed by a military-technological rationale, and military might is seen as a main tool of Russian foreign policy. Modern nuclear capabilities are key for Russia as they are regarded an effective bargaining chip that will also bring Moscow back to eye-level vis-à-vis the US. Yet, the Kremlin regards all manners of hybrid warfare – including disinformation, cyber-attacks and Russian-engineered international media coverage – as equally legitimate.

Analysis

Hurdle Race with a Slow Start
Hurdle Race with a Slow Start

Public Administration Reform in Ukraine

by Iryna Solonenko | Ukraine, Reform

Launched in 2015 after the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine’s public administration reform is a serious attempt to overhaul the existing system based on recognized European principles. However, its implementation has been patchy due to various obstacles including poor leadership and resistance to change. To tackle these drawbacks, it is important to establish a reform task force led by the prime minster and improve legislation. Support from Germany and Europe will also be decisive for the reform’s success.

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